6.3.1 Introduction to Exchange Rates | CIE IGCSE Economics Revision Notes 2020 (2024)

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Foreign Exchange Rates (Forex)

  • An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another e.g. £1 = €1.18
    • International currencies are essentially products that can be bought & sold on the foreign exchange market (forex)
  • The Central Bank of a country controls the exchange rate system that is used in determining the value of a nation's currency
  • Two of the main exchange rate systems are
    • A floating exchange rate
    • A fixed exchange rate

1. A Floating Exchange Rate System

  • Different currencies can be bought & sold, just like any other product
  • The forces of demand & supply determine the rate at which one currency exchanges for another
  • As with any market, if there is excess demand for the currency on the forex market, then prices rise (the currency appreciates)
  • If there is an excesssupply of the currency on the forex market, then prices fall (the currency depreciates)

6.3.1 Introduction to Exchange Rates | CIE IGCSE Economics Revision Notes 2020 (1)

The relationship between the US$ & the Euro shows that as Europeans demand the $ it appreciates but by supplying their own currency it depreciates


Diagram Analysis

  • The Euro/US$ market is shown by two market diagrams - one for the USD market on the left & one for the Euro market on the right
  • The initial exchange rate equilibrium is found at P1Q1 in both markets
  • When Europeans visit the USA, they demand US$ & supply Euros
    • The increased demand for the US$ shifts the demand curve to the right which results in the value of the $ appreciating from P1 → P2in the USD market & a new market equilibrium forms at P2Q2
    • The increased supply of the Euro shifts the supply curve to the right which results in the value of the Euro depreciating fromP1 → P2 & a new market equilibrium forms at P2Q2

2. A Fixed Exchange Rate System

  • A system in which the country’s Central Bank intervenes in the currency market to fix (peg) the exchange rate in relation to another currency e.g US$
    • When they want their currency to appreciate, they buy it on forex markets using their foreign reserves, thus increasing its demand
    • When they want their currency to depreciate, they sell it on forex markets, thus increasing its supply
  • Sometimes the peg is at parity e.g. 1 Brunei Dollar = 1 Singapore Dollar
  • Often the peg is not at parity e.g. Hong Kong has pegged its currency to the US$ at a rate of HK$ 7.75 = US$ 1
  • A revaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg & increase the strength of its currency
  • A devaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg & decrease the strength of its currency

Evaluating Exchange Rate Systems

  • Each exchange rate system has advantages & disadvantages attached

An Evaluation of A Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism


Advantages

Disadvantages
  • Natural fluctuations in the exchange rate based on demand & supply help to maintain stable current account balances
  • If a currency appreciates, the country's exports fall & imports rise
  • If a currency depreciates, the country's exports rise & imports fall
  • Fluctuations in the exchange rate can create uncertainty for firms, leading to a reduction in investment e.g. if a firm provides a quotation to a foreign buyer based on today's exchange rate, but the exchange rate then appreciates, the domestic firm will not make as much profit as expected
  • Currency appreciation may allow costs of imported raw materials to decrease which may help lower prices in the economy
  • Currency depreciation may cause costs of imported raw materials to increase resulting in cost push inflation
  • Lower exchange rates (or a depreciating currency) may help to increase economic growth as export sales increase
  • Higher exchange rates (or an appreciating currency) may reduce/slow down economic growth as export sales decrease
  • Government does not need to monitor & maintain a fixed exchange rate

An Evaluation of A Fixed Exchange Rate Mechanism


Advantages

Disadvantages
  • Even with an increasing demand for a country's exports, the price of its exports will remain fixed as the currency will not appreciate with more demand
  • This can boost export sales over time e.g. China did this for many years & its products remained artificially cheap to buy
  • In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Central Bank has to regularly intervene in the currency market by buying or selling its own currency
  • This can be an expensive policy to maintain
  • Firms (foreign & domestic) benefit as they can agree prices with a high level of certainty as the exchange rate will not fluctuate
  • Changing the interest rate can also influence the exchange rate
  • Changing the interest rate to maintain a fixed exchange rate can have negative consequences on consumption, investment, lending, saving & borrowing

6.3.1 Introduction to Exchange Rates | CIE IGCSE Economics Revision Notes 2020 (2)

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    6.3.1 Introduction to Exchange Rates | CIE IGCSE Economics Revision Notes 2020 (2024)
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