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Grant Hughes
Schedule favorability is essential to making a run to the College Football Playoff. While many metrics are used to determine strength of schedule, the NCAA bases SOS on the combined win percentage of that team’s opponents from the previous season. Using that metric, industry veteran Phil Steele laid out the top 15 toughest schedules in college footballfor the 2023 season.
Three of the top five toughest schedules next season belong to SEC teams, while the Pac-12 has two in the top 15, and the ACC has just one in the top 20. Four teams (all from the Big 12) draw eleven opponents that qualified for the postseason last year: Iowa State, Kansas St, Texas, and West Virginia.
Steele will include his own strength of schedules in his 2023 season preview magazine. He sends the last page of the magazine to the press June 8, and it should hit the newsstands by July 4. Fans who pre-order the magazine get the digital version for free.
Here are the top 15 toughest college football schedules for 2023:
15. Stanford Cardinal
Opponent Win/Loss:59.7% (92-62)
2023 schedule:Hawaii (H), USC (A), Sacramento State (H), Arizona (H), Oregon (H), Colorado (A), UCLA (H), Washington (H), Washington State (A), Oregon State (A), California (H), Notre Dame (H)
Head coach Troy Taylor faces a gauntlet during his inaugural year with Stanford. The Cardinal face eight bowl teams from a season ago and six teams that finished the year ranked in the AP Top 25, including an away matchup with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC in Week 2.
14. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Opponent Win/Loss:59.9% (94-63)
2023 schedule:Wyoming (A), Oregon (H), Tarleton State (H), West Virginia (A), Houston (H), Baylor (A), Kansas State (H), BYU (A), TCU (H), Kansas (A), UCF (H), Texas (A)
Ten of Texas Tech’s 2023 opponents played in a bowl game last season, including TCU and Oregon, who finished No. 2 and No. 15, respectively, in the final AP Poll. The Red Raiders play eight of their 12 games in the state of Texas and close the regular season with a tough matchup against a Longhorns team looking to avenge their 37-34 overtime loss to the Red Raiders in 2022.
T12. Auburn Tigers
Opponent Win/Loss: 60.0% (93-62)
2023 schedule: UMass (H), California (A), Samford (H), Texas A&M (A), Georgia (H), LSU (A), Ole Miss (H), Mississippi State (H), Vanderbilt (A), Arkansas (A), New Mexico State (H), Alabama (H)
Hugh Freeze gets a heaping helping of the SEC’s best during his first season in the conference. Auburn renews its rivalries with Georgia and Alabama at home and has particularly tough matchups with Texas A&M and LSU on the road. The Tigers' schedule is the sixth-toughest in the SEC.
T12. California Golden Bears
Opponent Win/Loss:60.0% (93-62)
2023 schedule:North Texas (A), Auburn (H), Idaho (H), Washington (A), Arizona State (H), Oregon State (H), Utah (A), USC (H), Oregon (A), Washington State (H), Stanford (A), UCLA (H)
California's six-game home slate is highlighted by the Golden Bears' first-ever meeting with Auburn on Sept. 9. California's schedule features nine bowl teams from a season ago, including a brutal three-game stretch against Utah, USC and Oregon. The Golden Bears face each of the Pac-12's top-six finishers from 2022.
11. Kentucky Wildcats
Opponent Win/Loss:60.4% (93-61)
2023 schedule:Ball State (H), Eastern Kentucky (H), Akron (H), Vanderbilt (A), Florida (H), Georgia (A), Missouri (H), Tennessee (H), Mississippi State (A), Alabama (H), South Carolina (A), Louisville (A)
The Wildcats, who start with three-straight games at home, host a majority of its most formidable challengers, with Florida, Tennessee and Alabama all coming to Lexington. However, Kentucky is likely an underdog in at least two of those games and faces five ranked teams from a season ago in Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi State, in addition to Tennessee and Alabama.
10. Kansas State Wildcats
Opponent Win/Loss:60.8% (96-62)
2023 schedule:Southeast Missouri (H), Troy (H), Missouri (A), UCF (H), Oklahoma State (A), Texas Tech (A), TCU (H), Houston (H), Texas (A), Baylor (H), Kansas (A), Iowa State (H)
The Wildcats went 10-4 in 2022 en route to the program’s third Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl appearance. Head coach Chris Klieman looks to keep the ball rolling against a tough 2023 slate that features 11 bowl teams from a season ago, tied for the most in the Big 12. Kansas State plays five-straight teams from the Lone Star State from Oct. 6-Nov. 11, including a Big 12 Championship Game rematch with TCU.
9. Ohio State Buckeyes
Opponent Win/Loss:61.0% (94-60)
2023 schedule:Indiana (A), Youngstown State (H), Western Kentucky (H), Notre Dame (A), Maryland (H), Purdue (A), Penn State (H), Wisconsin (A), Rutgers (A), Michigan State (H), Minnesota (H), Michigan (A)
Ohio State’s pursuit of a second-straight College Football Playoff appearance hinges on how potential starting quarterback Kyle McCord handles a tough regular-season slate. The Buckeyes start with three should-be wins before traveling to South Bend to face Sam Hartman and Notre Dame for their first real test.
8. Iowa State Cyclones
Opponent Win/Loss:61.4% (97-61)
2023 schedule:UNI (H), Iowa (H), Ohio (A), Oklahoma State (H), Oklahoma (A), TCU (H), Cincinnati (A), Baylor (A), Kansas (H), BYU (A), Texas (H), Kansas State (A)
Iowa State faces two Big 12 newcomers in Cincinnati and BYU and plays both Texas and Oklahoma in their final year in the conference. The Cyclones finished 4-8 in 2022, with a 1-8 mark in Big 12 play. Things don’t get easier for Matt Campbell in 2023 as his team faces 11 bowl teams and nine ranked opponents from last season.
T6. Florida Gators
Opponent Win/Loss:61.5% (96-60)
2023 schedule:Utah (A), McNeese (H), Tennessee (H), Charlotte (H), Kentucky (A), Vanderbilt (H), South Carolina (A), Georgia (Jacksonville), Arkansas (H), LSU (A), Missouri (A), Florida State (H)
Florida opens the season with a tough matchup against the reigning Pac-12 champions in Salt Lake City. The Gators go on to play its usual SEC East foes before embarking on a homestretch that features a game against LSU at Death Valley and what should be an entertaining rivalry matchup with an upstart Florida State at The Swamp.
T6. Houston Cougars
Opponent Win/Loss:61.5% (96-60)
2023 schedule:UTSA (H), Rice (A), TCU (H), Sam Houston (H), Texas Tech (A), West Virginia (H), Texas (H), Kansas State (A), Baylor (A), Cincinnati (H), Oklahoma State (H), UCF (A)
Houston's inaugural season in the Big 12 features home games against in-state rivals TCU and Texas for the first time since 2003 and 2002, respectively. The Cougars play 10 games in the state of Texas during 2023, their most in the regular season since 1990.Houston's seven on-campus home games are its most since 2015.
5. Missouri Tigers
Opponent Win/Loss:61.8% (97-60)
2023 schedule:South Dakota (H), Middle Tennessee (H), Kansas State (H), Memphis (St. Louis), Vanderbilt (A), LSU (H), Kentucky (A), South Carolina (H), Georgia (A), Tennessee (H), Florida (H), Arkansas (A)
Missouri’s schedule is as backloaded as it gets. The Tigers start the season with three-straight home games, what should be a challenging matchup with Big 12 champion Kansas State in Week 3. After a neutral-site game against Memphis, Missouri plays a brutal SEC slate. The Tigers’ 10 games against bowl teams from a season ago are the most in the SEC.
4. Ole Miss Rebels
Opponent Win/Loss:62.1% (95-68)
2023 schedule:Mercer (H), Tulane (A), Georgia Tech (H), Alabama (A), LSU (H), Arkansas (H), Auburn (A), Vanderbilt (H), Texas A&M (H), Georgia (A), ULM (H), Mississippi State (A)
Newly extended head coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels open the season at home against Mercer before traveling to New Orleans for an intriguing matchup against Tulane, the reigning AAC champion. Ole Miss plays three of the SEC’s top-four finishers from last season (Alabama, LSU, Georgia), with two of those games coming on the road.
3. West Virginia Mountaineers
Opponent Win/Loss:62.4% (98-59)
2023 schedule:Penn State (A), Duquesne (H), Pittsburgh (H), Texas Tech (H), TCU (A), Houston (A), Oklahoma State (H), UCF (A), BYU (H), Oklahoma (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (A)
The Mountaineers come off a 5-7 finish and have arguably the Big 12’s toughest slate in what could be a make-or-break year for Neal Brown in 2023. WVU kicks off the season against a good Penn State team in University Park and goes on to play 10 more teams that made a bowl game in 2022.
2. Michigan State
Opponent Win/Loss:62.7% (96-57)
2023 schedule:Central Michigan (H), Richmond (H), Washington (H), Maryland (H), Iowa (A), Rutgers (A), Michigan (H), Minnesota (A), Nebraska (H), Ohio State (A), Indiana (A), Penn State (H)
The Spartans took a step back in year three of the Mel Tucker era with a 5-7 record, more than halving their win total from 2021 (11-2). Michigan State starts the season with winnable games against Central Michigan and Richmond before its first real test of the season against Washington in Week 3. The Spartans have multiple tough matchups down the stretch and play eight total games against teams that finished with a winning record last season.
1. South Carolina Gameco*cks
Opponent Win/Loss:66.0% (103–53)
2023 schedule:North Carolina (Charlotte), Furman (H), Georgia (A), Mississippi State (H), Tennessee (A), Florida (H), Missouri (A), Texas A&M (A), Jacksonville State (H), Vanderbilt (H), Kentucky (H), Clemson (H)
Per Phil Steele’s metric, South Carolina has the toughest schedule in college football next season. The Gameco*cks kick off 2023 with their third meeting against North Carolina at Charlotte’s Bank of America stadium since 2019 (1-1). Shane Beamer and South Carolina must navigate tough road games against Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M before closing the season on a four-game road stretch that features rival Clemson in the regular-season finale.
