How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (2024)

Abstract:Normally, both the price and the technical indicator should move in the same direction. And many traders use different indicators when trading forex in order to get additional confirmation for their signals.

How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (1)

Divergence is one of the most powerful trading signals that combines price action analysis with the use of indicators to help traders look for clues between indicator and price action.

In this article, we will tell you the concept of divergence and explain how it is formed, in the context of the forex markets and relative to the indicators and outline the different types of divergences that are formed.

What Is A Divergence in Trading?

Forex divergence is defined as a case when the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator.

For example, a divergence forms on a chart when price makes a higher high, but the oscillator makes a lower high. Similarly, price makes lower low but the oscillator makes higher low. It is a warning sign that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to a change in the direction of the price.

The first thing to remember is that divergence itself should not be a signal to enter the market. You must have the main signal, and the divergence will act as a confirmation of this signal.

Different Types of Divergences

There are two main types of divergences, a regular divergence, and a hidden divergence. Let's explain both types in the following lines.

Regular Divergence

This type of regular divergence pattern come in two forms: Bearish Divergence and Bullish Divergence. A bullish divergence occurs during a downtrend, when the price makes lower lows but the indicator makes higher lows. As price and momentum should move in the same direction, if the indicator fails to make a lower low this is a sign that the trend may reverse. In this case, we should expect an upward movement; that is, the trader needs to get ready to buy.

A bearish divergence occurs when price creates higher tops on the chart, while your indicator is giving you lower tops. After a bearish divergence, price usually makes a rapid bearish move. Notice that this happens despite the previous bullish attitude in the price. A regular bearish divergence is a signal that the price is expected to cancel its upward trend and to switch to a downward trajectory.

How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (2)

Hidden Divergences

Unlike regular divergences, a hidden divergence indicates that the underlying trend may continue. Hidden divergences can also be grouped into hidden bullish divergences, and hidden bearish divergences.

To detect hidden bullish divergence, you need to pay attention to the lows of the chart, as well as the indicator. This kind of divergence occurs when the market is upward, drawing high lows, and the indicator reading lower. At times also referred to as positive reverse divergence.

As you probably guess, a hidden bearish divergence has the same character as the hidden bullish divergence, but in the opposite direction. We confirm a hidden bearish divergence when the price is showing lower tops, and the indicator gives higher tops. If you spot a hidden bearish divergence, chances are the current downtrend will continue in the future.

How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (3)

How to Trade with Divergences in Forex?

A divergence does not always lead to a strong reversal and often price just enters a sideways consolidation after a divergence. Keep in mind that a divergence just signals a loss of momentum, but does not necessarily signal a complete trend shift.

You can find divergence with any oscillator indicator. However, the results vary with the currency pairs and the chosen indicator. Among all, we have shortlisted the top three oscillator indicators that can be very helpful in your trading.

1. MACD

The MACD indicator can be very beneficial for finding the divergence and spotting early trend reversal in currencies. You can use the default settings of the indicator on any timeframe. However, it is better to use 1-hour timeframe. You can use take profit and stop-loss at fixed 20 pips difference or you can use the support and resistance levels as well.

2. RSI

The RSI indicator relative strength index identifies the overbought or oversold zones, themselves as entry and exit signals. Another strong trading signal is the RSI divergence indicator.

3. Stochastics

Stochastic is a widely used indicator for divergence. The recommended timeframe is 1-hour while the indicator can be used to exit the trades based on overbought and oversold conditions.

In addition, before you start trading divergence makes sure you go through these trading rules:

-Divergence can only show up in 4 different price scenarios

-For bearish divergence, the swing high prices typically correspond to an indicator's high point

-For bullish divergence, the swing low prices typically correspond to an indicator's low pointThe -slope – or the angle of the line connecting the highs and lows tells us how strong the divergence actually is

-Never chase divergence if the price action played out

How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (4)
How To Trade Divergences in Forex? (2024)

FAQs

How To Trade Divergences in Forex? ›

Top tips for trading divergence in forex trading

Is trading divergence profitable? ›

Trading divergence can be a profitable strategy for some traders, but like any trading approach, it comes with risks and is not guaranteed to be successful in every situation.

How to spot divergences? ›

2 Trend Lines

To spot divergences using trend lines, you need to compare the slope of the price and the trend line. If the price is making higher highs and higher lows, but the trend line is flat or downward sloping, you have a bearish divergence.

How do you avoid entering too early when trading divergences? ›

How Not to Get In Too Early Trading Divergences
  1. Wait Until You See an Indicator Crossover.
  2. Wait Until the Indicator Moves Away from Overbought or Oversold Zone.
  3. Plot Trend Lines Directly on the Indicator.
Jul 18, 2022

What time frame is best for divergence? ›

Divergences on shorter time frames will occur more frequently but are less reliable. We advise only look for divergences on 1-hour charts or longer. Other traders use 15-minute charts or even faster. In those time frames, there's just too much noise for our taste so we just stay away.

What is the best divergence indicator ever? ›

Divergences work on all indicators, but my favorite by far is the RSI (Relative Strength Index). The RSI compares the average gain and the average loss over a certain period. So for example, if your RSI is set to 14, it compares the bullish candles and the bearish candles over the past 14 candles.

Is RSI or MACD better for divergence? ›

When it comes to strengths and weaknesses, MACD is a momentum indicator that is better at identifying trend reversals. On the other hand, RSI is better at identifying overbought or oversold conditions. However, combining both indicators can provide a more comprehensive view of the market.

What is the secret of divergence trading? ›

Hidden Divergences

A Hidden Bullish Divergence occurs during an uptrend when the indicator value touches a lower low-price level, and the currency pair prices touch a higher low level. It signals traders about an upward continuation price trend and provides them with the ideal price level to enter/buy the trade.

What is the win rate of divergence? ›

Divergence: Test Summary

The other combinations of bull/bear markets and bullish/bearish divergence underperform the market index. For the winning combination, bullish divergence in a bull market, I found that it wins between 45% and 48% of the time.

How reliable is divergence? ›

Divergence is usually a reliable sign that the price of an asset may be reversing. Indicator divergence can occur over extended periods of time, so tools such as trendlines and support and resistance levels should also be used to help confirm reversals.

How reliable is MACD divergence? ›

While the MACD has many strengths and can help traders spot trend reversals, it is not infallible and struggles, particularly in sideways markets. Since the MACD is based on underlying price points, overbought and oversold signals are not as effective as a pure volume-based oscillator.

How to find divergence on a chart? ›

Often, peak-and-trough analysis is used to find divergences. If, for example, two or more rising troughs appear on the price plot (an uptrend) while two or more declining peaks appear at the same time on the indicator graph (a downtrend), a bearish divergence has been identified.

What's the hardest mistake to avoid while trading? ›

Biggest trading mistakes and how to avoid them
  • Over-reliance on software. ...
  • Failing to cut losses. ...
  • Overexposing a position. ...
  • Overdiversifying a portfolio too quickly. ...
  • Not understanding leverage. ...
  • Not understanding the risk-reward ratio. ...
  • Overconfidence after a profit. ...
  • Letting emotions impair decision making.

How to spot fake divergence? ›

In a false divergence, the price and the indicator move in opposite directions, creating the appearance of a divergence, but the underlying trend remains intact. For example, in a bullish trend, the price may make a higher high, while the indicator shows a lower high.

What is the triple divergence strategy? ›

The Three Period Divergence strategy is a trading system developed by Perry Kaufman, which is based upon analysis of momentum-price divergence. Best applied to daily price data, this strategy identifies time points where a momentum indicator (in our case, the Stochastic) and the price move away from each other.

Which trading style is most profitable? ›

The defining feature of day trading is that traders do not hold positions overnight; instead, they seek to profit from short-term price movements occurring during the trading session.It can be considered one of the most profitable trading methods available to investors.

What is the success rate of divergence? ›

Divergence: Test Summary

The other combinations of bull/bear markets and bullish/bearish divergence underperform the market index. For the winning combination, bullish divergence in a bull market, I found that it wins between 45% and 48% of the time.

What is the most profitable trading system? ›

Profit Parabolic” trading strategy based on a Moving Average. The strategy is referred to as a universal one, and it is often recommended as the best Forex strategy for consistent profits. It employs the standard MT4 indicators, EMAs (exponential moving averages), and Parabolic SAR that serves as a confirmation tool.

What is the most profitable form of stock trading? ›

Conclusion. The most profitable form of trading varies based on individual preferences, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Day trading offers rapid profits but demands quick decision-making, while position trading requires patience for long-term gains.

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