Is the NFL's New Kickoff Rule Backfiring? (2024)

In an attempt to reduce the frequency of kick returns—and by extension cut down on injuries—the NFL decided in the offseason to put the ball on the 25-yard line after a touchback. The rationale, of course, was that the extra five yards might cause returners to gamble less often on kicks that go into the end zone.

The problem is that the change has also provoked teams to consider leaving kickoffs short of the end zone. And it makes sense, because the average kick return is about 24 yards, and extra air time on shorter-than-usual kicks would give coverage units extra time to reach the return man.

Sure enough, as Mark Maske of the Washington Post pointed out earlier this month, touchbacks were, in fact, down, not up, during the 2016 preseason.

In an officiating video sent to media members,Dean Blandino, the league's vice president of officiating, addressed that discouraging trend by stating that "preseason kick return numbers do not translate to regular season." And he's right, because there are far fewer touchbacks in the preseason than in the regular season.

However, early returns from the 2016 regular season indicate that touchbacks have indeed become less frequent with the new rule in place.

Comparing fortnights

On the surface, it's not entirely obvious. The leaguewide touchback rate is 59 percent right now, which is actually three percentage points higher than the 2015 full-season rate of 56 percent. But touchbacks become much less common as temperatures drop and special teams units become depleted due to injuries over the course of the year.

When you simply compare the first two weeks of the 2015 campaign to the first two weeks this season, and when you remove onside kicks and kicks coming from better or worse field positions as a result of penalties, you can see that touchbacks have actually become less frequent.

There have been 311 kickoffs from the 35-yard line this season, and a total of 120 of those kicks have been returned. At this same point last season, there had been 313 kickoffs from the 35, but only 99 were returned. So if we're comparing the first two weeks of 2015 with the first two weeks of 2016, the kickoff return rate on regular kicks from the 35 actually increased from 31.6 percent to 38.6 percent.

Players are indeed less likely to return kicks from the end zone. They've done so only 23.4 percent of the time, versus 26.4 percent during the first two weeks last season. And it's safe to assume that the 2016 end-zone return rate will drop as more returners realize that taking the ball out of the end zone is usually a bad gamble with the new rule in place.

However, far fewer kicks are making it to the end zone. Only 79.7 percent of kickoffs from the 35-yard line are reaching the opposing goal line this season, which is down from 93.0 percent at the two-week mark in 2015.

At this point last season, there had been only 22 returns from outside of the end zone. This year, there have been 61. And the average kickoff length has dropped from 65.4 yards to 64.5 yards.

That's because more teams are experimenting with shorter kicks in order to pin opponents back, just as the NFL had feared. And in some cases, it appears to be working.

Does it work?

Naturally, teams looking to bury their opponents inside the 25-yard line want to kick the ball as close to the end zone as possible without actually getting it there. That isn't easy, because it requires kickers to use a little extra finesse. If the kick has too much height, it might not go deep enough (29 kickoffs have fallen short of the 5-yard line this year, versus only 14 at this point last season). And if it is angled too dramatically, it has a better chance of going out of bounds (which is what happened toCairo Santos of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1).

Early indications are that if you can't get the ball close to the 5-yard line, there's a better than even chance you'd have been better off smashing it into the end zone. But if you can land it inside the 5 and outside of the end zone, there's a good chance you'll buy your defense some extra yards.

The strategy can also backfire simply because it gives the opposing team a chance to make a play. Two of the three longest kick returns this season have come on kickoffs that were received between the 3- and 5-yard line. In those cases, the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers tested strong return men Cordarrelle Patterson and Ted Ginn, respectively, and both were burned with 50-plus-yard returns.

So it might not always be worth the risk, but it does appear teams have been giving it a try.

Who is experimenting the most?

"I know there was a lot of sentiment to eliminate that play, but those are the kinds of plays that are good strategy plays in football," New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said, per MassLive.com's Nick O'Malley. This remark cameafter his kicker,Stephen Gostkowski, deliberately placed a high kickoff inside the Arizona Cardinals' 5-yard line late in their Week 1 tilt, forcing the Cardinals to start from their own 8-yard line after a poor return and a penalty.

Belichickelaborated on the strategy:

Gostkowski also appeared to leave a kick short earlier in that quarter, and again in that case, the Cardinals weren't able to get it close to the 25-yard line. But the Patriots have kicked the ball into the end zone on every other kickoff they've had this season, so Belichick must be picking his spots.

Nobody has gone full short kick, but the Oakland Raiders have probably become the leaders of the pack in that area. Raiders kickerSebastian Janikowski has a big leg, but six of his 12 kickoffs have fallen short of the end zone, often with multiple bounces or high lofts.

The average starting field position for Oakland's opponents on those six short kicks? The 19-yard line.

Meanwhile, when the New Orleans Saints signed rookie kickerWil Lutz to the active roster prior to the season, Josh Katzensteinof the New OrleansTimes-Picayunenoted that the Georgia State product had just two touchbacks on nine kickoffs, adding that "the Saints are hoping to keep kickoffs in play to induce more returns as opposed to having teams get a touchback at the 25-yard line."

Two weeks into the season,Lutz has left five of his 10 kickoffs well short of the end zone. On all five occasions, the opposing team has taken over inside the 25-yard line. And on average, they've started at the 18.

And in Houston, the Texans have clearly experimented with shorter kicks with Nick Novak, who earned touchbacks on 37 percent of his kickoffs in 2015 but has just one touchback on 12 this season.

"Kickers will get more creative," Novak said back in March when the rule change was announced, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. "I feel like my strength has been getting the ball into the corner. I'm not a coach, but I've been kicking for a long time and I think it's a great option to get it inside the 25-yard line and get a coverage team that can tackle him inside the 20."

But the opposing returner has made it past that magical 25-yard line on four ofNovak's six kickoffs short of the end zone, so the Texans haven't exactly benefited from the new strategy.

There are some less obvious but still positive examples, likeCaleb Sturgis of the Philadelphia Eagles giving the Chicago Bears an average starting field position inside the 23-yard line on his four shorter-than-usual kicks Monday night. And there are some less encouraging but potentially coincidental examples, like the Minnesota Vikings allowing Tennessee Titans returnerMarc Mariani to reach the 25-yard line on three of kicker Blair Walsh's four short-of-the-end-zone kicks in Week 1.

All in all, though, it does appear to be a worthwhile strategy if the situation calls for it. And if kickers are given a chance to get better at it, we might see even more of it.

However, the league might not allow that to materialize.

Failed experiment?

If teams continue to experience success while experimenting with short kickoffs, the NFL will likely opt to abandon what would inevitably become a failed experiment. The revised touchback rule was only implemented for one year to begin with, but Blandino noted in that early-September officiating video that the league could reconsider things as early as Week 4.

Will the NFL readjust the rule on the fly? Or will teams be given a full 17 weeks to tinker with kicks designed to pin opponents back? We'll probably have a better feel for what the future holds for touchbacks in a few weeks, but if indeed they continue to give teams the ball at the 25-yard line for the remainder of the year, there's a strong chance kick returns will surge rather dramatically in 2016.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.