Jim Kubiak: Keep your eyes on Bills' point differential as measure of success (2024)

Jim Kubiak has been analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks forBNBlitz.com. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks.

Here, Kubiak looks at his expectations for the coming Bills season.

Plus-100 points

What is the secret to success in the NFL? What makes some franchises and quarterbacks more successful than others? Why does a seemingly less talented quarterback sometimes have more success than one that is clearly more physically gifted? What are the statistics indicative of a championship team?

These were certainly questions asked by Buffalo Bills General Manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott on their arrival in Buffalo just a few years ago.

I believe the answer might be found in the point differential.

What I’ve learned about the professional game through the years is that while turnovers make the most difference in winning and losing, there are other enormously important elements of successful teams, such as having a strong defense, playoff experience, physicality, fortitude and durability. However, one fairly obvious factor is that the team with the most points is the team that wins in the end.

This focus on points led me to take a look at the championship teams from the last four Super Bowls. I found that, statistically, the champions were almost always in the top 10 in the NFL in scoring. But great offenses can sometimes struggle when they face great defenses.

Point differential is the difference between how many points a team scores and how many points a team allows. If a team scores 400 points and gives up 300 points, they have a plus-100 point differential.

In the comparison of point differential, we might be able to draw some striking conclusions about where the Bills are and where they might be going.

Perhaps the magic is not only in having a sensational quarterback who protects the football and rarely gets injured, but also includes a stingy defense that prevents points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 had a differential of plus-137. The Kansas City Chiefs in 2019 had a plus-143. The 2018 New England Patriots were a plus-111 and the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles with Nick Foles at the controls were plus-162. The same pattern emerged. These Super Bowl teams all had a plus-100 point differential or greater.

Digging deeper, only three teams in the last 10 years won the Super Bowl without being at least plus-100. The 2015 Denver Broncos, led by Peyton Manning, had a plus-59 differential. The 2012 Baltimore Ravens were a plus-54. The 2011 New York Giants were minus-6.

In each of these games, the defenses carried the day and the quarterback play by Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning, respectively, was excellent in that they consistently avoided big mistakes or turnovers.

Now consider this: the Buffalo Bills have had a point differential of plus-100 six times in franchise history. In the 60 years of Bills football, they have hit the mark in only 10% of their seasons: 1990 (plus-165), 1964 (plus-158), 1991 (plus-140), 2020 (plus-126), 2004 (plus-111), and 1966 (plus-103).

If we look at the most successful franchise in the modern era of football, the New England Patriots, they hit the plus-100 mark in 14 consecutive seasons before missing this mark and the playoffs in 2020. Amazingly, the Bill Belichick-era Patriots (since 2000) have had a plus-100 point differential in 15 of his 20 seasons.

Extrapolating this data further, since 2000, the Bills have been a plus-100 team in just 5% of their seasons, while the Patriots have been plus-100 an astounding 75% of those seasons. This is a staggering difference between franchises, and perhaps explains why or how successful teams remain successful over time. They simply continue to find ways to create the plus-100 differential.

2020 Plus-100 Teams

Last season, only seven of 32 teams broke the plus-100 mark.

Baltimore Ravens: plus-165

New Orleans Saints: plus-145

Green Bay Packers: plus-140

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: plus-137

Buffalo Bills: plus-126

Kansas City Chiefs: plus-111

Pittsburgh Steelers: plus-104

This was the first time the Bills had been a plus-100 team since 2004. The Beane and McDermott team has accomplished something that has only been accomplished in three seasons since 1990 at the beginning of the Jim Kelly era.

Putting it together

If you break down becoming a plus-100-point differential team even further, this actually means winning each regular season game by an average of 6.25 points. This doesn’t seem to be enough, does it? The difference between being a contender and being out of the playoffs is winning games by six points or more. The margins for success are razor thin, which is why having great depth and the consistency within coaching philosophies enables franchises like the Bills to build and develop through the draft.

Beane and McDermott have impressively crafted the Bills into a plus-100 contender.

They knew that Tyrod Taylor and a 2017 Bills team that was a minus-57 differential could not take them where they wanted to go and they drafted a physical, strong-armed quarterback from the University of Wyoming. That was a long shot, considering other quarterbacks with huge arms have often failed to develop other necessary skills for success, such as Jeff George, JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf. These flame-throwing quarterbacks relied too heavily on their arm and never committed to adjusting their preparation or the way they played the game at the NFL level. This inability to adjust and to allow themselves to be coached was ultimately their downfall, despite their tremendous physical talent.

Allen has shown he is striving to surpass those quarterbacks, as he has learned, changed and adapted to the philosophies of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Philosophy is an important word in the development of a football team because it is the core of what the team believes is necessary to win. The Bills have shifted to more autonomy for Allen, more responsibility to read coverage and RPO- type plays. Many of the concepts Allen is now running are also short-to-deep read progressions that get the football out of his hand in under three seconds and into the possession of explosive players like Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow and Gabriel Davis.

As Allen has developed himself mentally, the Bills have increasingly utilized spread and empty formations that thin out defensive schemes and enhance Allen’s ability to see and adjust to blitzes and changing structures more readily. Allen is also uniquely gifted with the knack for running the football. If the Bills command defensive respect with their passing game, Daboll will run Allen against schemes that may only contain four or five defenders in the box to stop the run. The combination of high-percentage passing from spread formations, as well as the ability of the quarterback to run from the same sets, makes this offense among the best in the NFL.

A former defensive coordinator, McDermott has not only maintained his own defensive philosophies through Lezlie Frazier, but he has continued to build his defense physically up front. The Bills drafted defensive end Greg Rousseau in the first round and Boogie Basham in the second round to help improve the Bills’ ability to stop the run and generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

A quick examination of the 2021 Buccaneers’ defensive success against Patrick Mahomes shows the Buccaneers’ ability to apply pressure with four pass rushers and play deep coverage with two-deep safeties severely limited Mahomes’ big-play capabilities. This all but eliminated the Chiefs’ game-changing wide receiver Tyreek Hill and ultimately took the Chiefs out of their game plan. This is the template Beane and McDermott were after in drafting Rousseau and Basham.

The Bills will plan to rotate more physically gifted and powerful pass rushers to generate pressure with only four. This will give the Buffalo secondary the ability to play two-safety coverages, both man and zone, as well as robber and tandem concepts that would double prolific players like Hill and Travis Kelce. Having more coverage options increases the ability to deceive and frustrate opposing quarterbacks.

Conclusion

The Bills were 3-0 in the preseason and were plus-41 in point differential, scoring 76 points and only giving up 30. In three games, that extrapolates to a 13.6-point margin of victory. In a 16-game season, a 13.6-point margin of victory would translate to plus-217. This is not likely, but the combination of additional defensive pass rush power and Daboll’s ability to make Allen the most well-coached, disciplined and dynamic playmaker in the game undoubtedly puts the 2021 Buffalo Bills above the plus-100 threshold. History shows that puts the Bills in a position to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Buffalo.