Mishkin's Musings: Projecting the points pace needed to make the playoffs | Tampa Bay Lightning (2024)

In the shortened 2020-21 season, will a 12-in-10 points pace be enough to advance?

I have often written in this column about the 96-point threshold that typically secures a postseason spot for NHL teams. That threshold, of course, is based on an 82-game regular season.
With rare exception, a team that can accumulate at least 96 points guarantees itself a playoff berth. Often, 96 points aren't needed. But since the cut line varies from season to season, it's best for teams to aim for 96.
During a full regular season, teams can hit the 96-point threshold by maintaining a 12-in-10 pace; that is, banking 12 points in each 10-game segment. By hitting those markers, a club would reach 96 points after 80 games. If it's just short, it can use games 81 and 82 to make up the deficit.

The pandemic cut short the 2019-20 regular season. But the 12-in-10 pace was still a reliable indicator. Most teams played 70 games before the season paused. Some played one more. Others one or two less. Any club that reached 84 points was assured of a top-eight spot in its conference. Of course, for the Restart, the NHL included eight additional teams and a Qualifying Round. So an 84-point pace wasn't needed. But it's still informative that, just as 96 points does the trick in an 82-game campaign, 84 would have been enough last year if the league hadn't expanded the field.
What about this unique season? It's only 56 games. Teams only play within their divisions. And unlike the typical qualifying format, there aren't any wildcard spots. Instead, it's by division. In other words, the top four in each division advance, regardless of how their point totals compare with teams in other divisions.
Let's use the 12-in-10 metric on a 56-game schedule. A club maintaining that pace would reach 66 points after 55 games, with two more available points in its final game. Will a 66-point threshold be as reliable this season as 96 has been in other years?
For several reasons, it's hard to know the answer at this juncture. Even if the schedule and playoff qualification formats weren't any different this year, the pace could be affected by the reduced number of games. Remember, the 12-in-10 pace wasn't impacted in last year's shortened regular season. But lopping off another 14 games might make a difference. That's less time for teams to gain separation from each other. Also, while it's difficult to maintain a 12-in-10 pace over seven or eight 10-game segments, it's not as challenging to do it for one or two 10-game segments. In fact, during the first 10-game segment of this season, a majority of NHL clubs are ahead of, at, or just behind the 12-in-10 pace. Can all these teams replicate it for four and a half additional segments?
As I already mentioned, the shorter season isn't the only variable. Because teams only play within their division, lots of overtime games in a division will push the point totals up. And the absence of wildcard qualification affects this equation, too. Under the standard format, a team in a deeper, higher-point division could finish fifth and still earn a wildcard spot. This year, a division's relative strength or weakness is unrelated and not connected to the relative strength or weakness of any other division. (There is one caveat to this statement - in the playoffs, the four teams that come out of their respective divisions and reach the semifinals will be reseeded based on regular season point totals).
Time will tell. It's possible that 66 points will be more than enough in some divisions - and not enough in others.