Last year we witnessed history as the 8-seed Golden State Warriors beat the Dallas Mavericks, the team with the best overall regular season record, in a 7-game series.
This year, the 8th seed in the Western Conference could have a completely different historical connotation.
As of tonight, the Golden State Warriors are 45-29. With eight games left to play in the regular season, they are only 6.5 games behind the top team in the West.
And yet they are struggling just to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The tight playoff race in the Western Conference is making for some very exciting April basketball, but it could ultimately lead to a very good team being excluded from the postseason. Fans of teams such as the Warriors, Nuggets, or even the Mavericks have to wonder how their teams can win so many games and still have to worry about simply making the playoffs.
Is it possible that we might see the first 50-win team to miss the playoffs?
Never has a team with at least 50 wins missed the playoffs. Even before the 82-game season was instituted, no team above .600 ever missed the postseason. There have been some close calls before, but nothing quite like we're seeing now.
Just to put things in perspective, here's some comparisons to past years:
2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2004-2005 - For three seasons in a row, the top 6 teams in the Western Conference all had at least 50 wins. Still, the best record among West teams during each of these years always had at least 58 wins, something not likely to happen this year.
2000-2001 - This is probably the closest we've ever seen to the current situation.
The top 7 teams in the West all had at least 50 wins that season led by the 58-24 Spurs. The Timberwolves just squeaked into the 8-spot with a record of 47-35.
A rather weak Eastern Conference saw just three teams able to muster 50 wins as well as one of the worst records ever to make the playoffs in recent history; the 41-41 Pacers.
1999-2000 - The top 6 teams in the west all had at least 50 wins, but the Lakers were way ahead of everybody with a 67-15 record.
1996-1997 - This season saw quite a bit of polarization in both conferences. Overall there were 10 teams that finished with at least 54 wins in '96-'97.
In the East, Jordan's Bulls finished on top with a historic 69-13 record. The Charlotte Hornets, despite having a 54-28 record, finished 6th in the conference. Still, the Washington Bullets needed only 44 wins to make the playoffs.
In the West the Lakers went 56-26 and they were seeded 4th.
1993-1994 - Just like in '96-'97, 10 NBA teams finished with at least 50 wins. This time, the majority were in the Western Conference.
Other than that, you have to go all the way back to...
1971-1972 - This was back in the day when there were only 17 teams, so only the top 4 in each conference would go to the playoffs. Still, even with a 49-33 record, the Phoenix Suns didn't make the cut that year in a stacked Western Conference. Only one team in the East, the Boston Celtics, mustered at least 50 wins that year.
But could it happen this year?
Of the seven games the Nuggets have left, four of them are against teams below .500, including two out of the three home games they have left. If they win just those four games, they will finish 50-32
Of the eight games the Warriors have left, four of them are against teams below .500, including three out of the four home games they have left. If they win just those four games, they will finish 49-33.
Oh, and one other thing: The Warriors and Nuggets play each other in Oakland on April 10. If the Warriors win that game, then it's very possible for both teams to finish with 50 wins.
What about the Mavericks? Of their eight games remaining, only two include teams below .500. Just one of those is a home game. Tonight's game against Golden State will be huge for them. Still, at 46-28 with eight games left to play, it's very possible that Dallas could also finish with 50 wins.
Regardless of whether or not we see a 50-win team miss the playoffs this year, two things are quite clear. First, the Western Conference is continuing its domination. More importantly, though, NBA fans are going to miss an opportunity to see one of the better teams in the league compete in the playoffs.
