Eight teams took a 3-1 series lead in theirbest-of-seven seriesin the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Seven teams advanced (Carolina [2], Florida, Toronto, Vegas [3]) and one went home (Boston). While a 3-1 lead is always a good thing, it's never a sure thing.
Through 2023, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 333 times. Only 32 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.
The chart below describes all 32 comebacks by year, team and round. In the 36 seasons since all playoff rounds were expanded to best-of-seven series in 1987, 30 teams have comeback from a 3-1 deficit to win their series. In the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, however, only 12 teams (Washington 2009, Montreal 2010, Philadelphia 2010, Tampa Bay 2011, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014,New York 2014, New York 2015, San Jose 2019, Montreal 2021, New York 2022, Florida 2023) have turned the trick. Of the 32 teams that completed the comeback, six won the Stanley Cup (Toronto 1942, Edmonton 1990, Pittsburgh 1992,New Jersey 2000, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014) and five more made it to the Final but failed to hoist the hardware (Vancouver 1994, Philadelphia 2010, New York 2014, Montreal 2021, Florida 2023).Year Matchup Round 1942 TorontooverDetroit Final 1975 New York*overPittsburgh Preliminary 1987 New York*overWashington Preliminary DetroitoverToronto Quarterfinal 1988 WashingtonoverPhiladelphia Quarterfinal 1989 Los AngelesoverEdmonton Preliminary 1990 EdmontonoverWinnipeg Preliminary 1991 St. LouisoverDetroit Preliminary 1992 Detroit overMinnesota^ Preliminary Vancouver overWinnipeg Preliminary PittsburghoverWashington Preliminary 1994 Vancouver over Calgary Preliminary 1995 Pittsburgh overWashington Preliminary 1998 EdmontonoverColorado Preliminary 1999 St. Louis over Phoenix Preliminary 2000 New Jersey overPhiladelphia Semifinal 2003 Minnesota^^overColorado Preliminary Vancouver overSt. Louis Preliminary Minnesota^^overVancouver Quarterfinal 2004 MontrealoverBoston Preliminary 2009 WashingtonoverNew York** Preliminary 2010 MontrealoverWashington Preliminary PhiladelphiaoverBoston Quarterfinal 2011 Tampa BayoverPittsburgh Preliminary 2013 Chicago overDetroit Quarterfinal 2014 Los Angeles overSan Jose Preliminary New York** overPittsburgh Quarterfinal 2015 New York** overWashington Quarterfinal 2019 San JoseoverVegas Preliminary 2021 MontrealoverToronto Preliminary 2022 New York** overPittsburgh Preliminary 2023 FloridaoverBoston Preliminary
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
Only one team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same playoff (Minnesota 2003). Similarly, only one team has ever comeback down 3-1 and blown a 3-1 lead in the same postseason (Vancouver 2003).
The chart below lists all teams involved in such 3-1 series comebacks, showing the total number of series involving such circ*mstances and their overall win/loss record.
| Team | Series | Record |
| Washington | 7 | 2-5 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 2-4 |
| Detroit | 5 | 2-3 |
| New York** | 4 | 3-1 |
| Vancouver | 4 | 3-1 |
| Montreal | 3 | 3-0 |
| Edmonton | 3 | 2-1 |
| St. Louis | 3 | 2-1 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 1-2 |
| Toronto | 3 | 1-2 |
| Boston | 3 | 0-3 |
| Los Angeles | 2 | 2-0 |
| Minnesota^^ | 2 | 2-0 |
| New York* | 2 | 2-0 |
| San Jose | 2 | 1-1 |
| Colorado | 2 | 0-2 |
| Winnipeg | 2 | 0-2 |
| Chicago | 1 | 1-0 |
| Florida | 1 | 1-0 |
| New Jersey | 1 | 1-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 1 | 1-0 |
| Arizona | 1 | 0-1 |
| Calgary | 1 | 0-1 |
| Minnesota^ | 1 | 0-1 |
| Vegas | 1 | 0-1 |
Only Anaheim,Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas,Nashville, Ottawa, Seattle and Winnipeg(formerly the Atlanta Thrashers) have never comeback from a 3-1 series deficit or blown a 3-1 series lead. Montreal, Vancouver and the New York Rangerslead all teams in comebacks trailing a series 3-1 with three series wins. Conversely, Washington has blown more 3-1 series leads than any other team, squandering five such series. It's worth noting that in the 18 postseasons since the2004 NHL Lockout, 16 teams have squandered a 3-1 series lead only to stave off elimination by winning Game 7. They are Carolina (2006, 2009), Vancouver (2007, 2011), Montreal (2008), Philadelphia (2008), San Jose (2011), Boston (2013, 2018), Los Angeles (2014), St. Louis (2016), Pittsburgh (2017), Dallas (2020), New York Islanders (2020) and Vegas (2020, 2021). Eight of these games were decided by one goal and six in overtime.
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
In sum, with a 10% chance of recovery for teams trailing their series 3-1, it's statistically likely their season will soon end.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets.
