When the going gets tough? The tough gets going?
Typically, going down 3-1 in an NBA Playoffs series is usually the expiration date for the trailing team's season. In the second round there is only one case, the Memphis Grizzlies, who lost Game 3 and 4 to the Golden State Warriors after tying the series at 1. Ja Morant missed Game 4 with a knee injury and his status is up in the air, but can the Grizzlies comeback after holding a lead on the road in the final minutes?
13 teams have come back from down 3-1 in NBA history, the first coming in 1968 and the most recent in 2020 when the Nuggets did it in two consecutive series. That's less than a .05% chance. Not that every situation is created equal, but it's as rare as it gets. No team has every erased as 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs.
For what it's worth the home team that is down 3-1 is 10-6-1 against the spread since 2010 and 13-4 straight up. In most cases, the teams in this spot are favored, which the Grizzlies are not. When teams like the Grizzlies are underdogs, they are 1-1 ATS and SU.
It's interesting that the home team has been able to extend this series at a high clip to go back on the road and force a Game 6, even though in most cases that's the end of the road.
Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for Game 5 from Memphis on Wednesday night:
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Warriors: -2.5 (-110)
- Grizzlies: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Warriors: -140
- Grizzlies: +120
Total: 220.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
