Pac-12 state of the conference: What's new, team tiers, predictions and more for 2023 (2024)

By Antonio Morales, Doug Haller and Chris Kamrani

The Pac-12 hasn’t had the best luck lately, but this might be the worst of it. Still, the conference seems poised to make a leap as it seeks its first College Football Playoff appearance since the 2016 season.

Four of the nation’s top quarterbacks are back. USC’s Caleb Williams may challenge for his second Heisman Trophy, while Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Oregon’s Bo Nix and Utah’s Cameron Rising, once healthy, may not be far behind.

There’s Coach Prime in Colorado. The Buffaloes were terrible last season, yet the hire of Deion Sanders has made them among the country’s more intriguing teams simply because no one knows what to expect. (And those who think they do will watch anyway.)

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USC has reloaded. Washington, Utah and Oregon look formidable, and Oregon State might end up better than all four. And yet, the storyline that will dominate the next five months is one that’s still difficult to believe. After the latest realignment bolt, the Pac-12 as we know it is down to its final season.

With USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington off to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah off to the Big 12, this is it. One last hurrah. The Pac-12 could make it memorable. But only if its luck changes.

What’s new in the Pac-12?

1. The farewell tour. Everyone assumed this would only be USC and UCLA’s last season in the league. After the crazy realignment drama, it’ll be Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah’s goodbye too.

2. The Deion Sanders era at Colorado has already generated so much content and so, so many takes about Sanders, modern roster building and anything else you can think of. Now it’s time to see what the Buffaloes will look like for Sanders’ first and only year in the conference.

3. There are plenty of intriguing freshmen to keep an eye on within the league, such as five-star receivers Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson at USC, five-star quarterback Dante Moore at UCLA and five-star wideout Jurrion Dickey and four-star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei at Oregon.

4. Several transfers thrived in the Pac-12 last season and the league was very active in the transfer portal again this offseason with four teams ranked in the top 10 of 247Sports’ transfer rankings. Colorado’s Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, USC’s Bear Alexander and Oregon’s Jordan Burch are among the top new faces.

5. Colorado isn’t the only rebuilding project in this league. Kenny Dillingham and Troy Taylor have inherited tough makeover jobs at Arizona State and Stanford, respectively. Dillingham, Sanders and Taylor are the only new coaches in the league this season and it’s no surprise their teams are projected to finish 10th, 11th and 12th.

Tier 1

USC

Stunner: No. 13 is why the Trojans are projected to finish atop the Pac-12 in this last iteration of the conference. Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, wowed USC and college football fans alike salivating for what his swan song in L.A. will look like in 2023. Have the Trojans fortified the roster around their superstar QB in order to make a potential run to the CFP? They hit the transfer portal for significant additions like RB MarShawn Lloyd (South Carolina), WR Dorian Singer (Arizona), LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) and more.

As has been the case with Lincoln Riley-coached teams, offense is rarely the issue. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch must find a system that fits all of USC’s new defensive talent in order for the Trojans to stay in the hunt for a CFP appearance late into the fall.

Washington

A common denominator for why these four teams are listed in the top tier is because of stellar QB play. Penix introduced himself and his mighty left arm to the college football universe a year ago, helping bring the Huskies back from a few years of obscurity into the national spotlight.

Combined with his arsenal of tall, rangy wide receivers, Penix will be part of the status quo challenging Williams for this year’s Heisman. But just like USC, Washington’s potential in 2023 rides on whether it can defensively stop teams from airing it out themselves.

The Huskies were 100th in college football in 2022 in passing yards allowed, admittedly an odd sight considering UW had in recent years churned out defensive backs to the NFL on a regular basis. Can the defense rediscover its once-dominant form to partner with the Michael Penix Jr. Show?

Utah

Rankings are arbitrary, yes, so it might be odd to see the two-time defending conference champs listed as the third team in this top tier. The reason? The health of the star of the program remains a massive question mark. Rising remains limited in camp in his return from a torn ACL suffered in the Utes’ Rose Bowl loss against Penn State in January, which lends us to ponder where they might be at the end of their most difficult nonconference schedule to date. Utah starts at home against Florida, then goes to Baylor in Week 2.

If Rising is healthy and can get Utah off on a strong note, then we’ve seen what this program can do with him running things. And he’s not the only star offensive player still on the mend. Tight end Brant Kuithe, who tore his ACL last September, has been limited in fall camp as well.

Oregon

It should be a fitting farewell to a conference that always fashioned itself as the conference of the quarterback. Nix is expected to build upon the stellar first year he had in Eugene after transferring from Auburn and he has star power around him. Wide receiver Troy Franklin and running back Bucky Irving are premier talents at their positions in the conference. Always known for its offensive ingenuity, Oregon recently added track-and-field star and Olympic sprinter Micah Williams to the roster in preseason camp.

The Ducks added former five-star recruit DE Jordan Burch from South Carolina as well as former USC WR Gary Bryant Jr. and former Troy WR Tez Johnson. The secondary is being reworked via the portal as well and will need to gel to help ease the transition of so many new faces on the defense. If Nix can stay healthy, he should have the Ducks in the mix to make some noise.

Tier 2

Oregon State

There will be a lot of people rooting for the Beavers this season simply because they’ve been deserted after this latest round of conference realignment. There are real on-field reasons to feel good about Oregon State, too. The Beavers should have the best offensive line in the league and talented sophom*ore tailback Damien Martinez, who was the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2022, running behind them. Defensive coordinator Trent Bray turned out to be a revelation last season.

The defense lost a considerable amount of talent from last season’s unit, which was the best in the league. But if Jonathan Smith unlocks DJ Uiagalelei’s potential and the offense has a functional passing game, then the defense should have a greater margin for error. The schedule sets up nicely too, so it’s not difficult to view Oregon State as a dark horse in the league title race.

UCLA

The Bruins lost the heart and soul of their offense the past two years — QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet — and had two starting offensive linemen drafted in April but still figure to be solid this season. For one, the nonconference schedule is light, which should spark a fast start to the season. The Bruins also navigated the transfer portal well by landing Ball State running back Carson Steele, Cal receiver J. Michael Sturdivant and linebacker Oluwafemi Oladejo. There’s a solid nucleus back on defense led by standout pass rusher Laiatu Latu.

The major question will be who takes over at quarterback: The five-star freshman Moore, Kent State transfer Collin Schlee or Ethan Garbers, who has been the backup the past few seasons?

Tier 3

Washington State

Take out the abbreviated 2020 season, and Utah has made eight consecutive bowls. That’s the longest streak among Pac-12 schools. The next program: Washington State with seven. The Cougars not only get left behind in realignment; they also get overlooked as a program.

Entering his second full season, coach Jake Dickert has new coordinators on both sides. On offense, Ben Arbuckle, 27, last season directed a Western Kentucky attack that was among the most prolific in the country. He inherits a talented QB in Cameron Ward, who last season passed for 3,231 yards and 23 touchdowns with nine interceptions. On defense, Jeff Schmedding arrives from Auburn. Last season the Cougars allowed just 22.9 points and return standout edge rushers Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone Jr.

Arizona

In 2020, Jedd Fisch took over one of the worst Power 5 programs in the country. Since then, the Wildcats have trended in the right direction. They went from one win in Year 1 to five last season. Entering this season, Fisch says he has his best team. That places reasonable expectations at a bowl invite, which would be the program’s first since 2017.

Offensively, Arizona has strong pieces. Jayden de Laura may not be Heisman caliber, but he’s a seasoned quarterback who last season threw for 3,685 yards (14th nationally) and 25 touchdowns. Receiver Jacob Cowing is proven and Tetairoa McMillan has the tools to be among the best in the conference. Tackle Jordan Morgan, recovering from ACL surgery, anchors what should be a solid line. As always, Arizona’s fate will depend on defense, where last season it yielded 36.5 points.

Tier 4

California

Depending on how preseason battles unfold, the Pac-12 this season could start as many as 10 or 11 transfer quarterbacks. Some like USC’s Williams and Utah’s Rising have been in place for a while. Others such as Cal’s Sam Jackson V, should he win the starting job, will be just getting started. A transfer from TCU, Jackson is a dynamic athlete who could put a spark into a Cal offense that last season averaged just 23.9 points. He’ll get help from Jaydn Ott, a Freshman All-American last season who produced 101.5 all-purpose yards per game.

Sixth-year linebacker Jackson Sirmon gives Cal an anchor on defense. Defensive back Craig Woodson has all-conference potential. After an encouraging start under Justin Wilcox, the Golden Bears have slipped. They haven’t posted a winning record since 2019. It’s time to get back on track.

Arizona State

For a program coming off a 3-9 season with possible NCAA sanctions looming, Dillingham has done a nice job of changing the message since his November hire. He’s overhauled the roster, rallied fans and established a culture that’s already resulted in the dismissals of two expected defensive contributors. That’s how you build a foundation. With eight home games, the Sun Devils might even turn out better than expected in Year 1. But it won’t be easy.

Arizona State didn’t place a single player on the Pac-12’s preseason first and second teams. Although receiver Elijhah Badger and tight end Jalin Conyers deserved strong consideration, that’s not a gross misrepresentation of the talent in Tempe. The Sun Devils should be OK at QB, where Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne battles resilient Trenton Bourguet. (Note: Pyne last week suffered a hamstring injury.) But to win, Arizona State likely will need several transfers to hit, and that can be difficult.

Tier 5

Colorado

Throughout its Pac-12 residency, the Buffaloes have posted just two winning seasons, one coming during the abbreviated 2020 season. Last season Colorado went 1-11, giving up 44.5 points per game, worst among D-I programs. Usually, such schools aren’t given much thought over the offseason. That has not been the case in Boulder.

Since his hire in December, Deion Sanders has become one of the Pac-12’s biggest attractions. That’s strange because he has not yet coached a game. He did not even attend Pac-12 media day, sidelined with a medical issue. Even so, he’ll start off as one of the bigger stories in college football. How long that lasts likely depends on how well Colorado plays. Sanders has overhauled his roster, adding 60-plus players. The Buffaloes will be improved — it would be difficult to be worse — but the road to respectability might be a long one.

Stanford

The decline of Stanford football has been one of the Pac-12’s top storylines. From 2010 to 2018, the Cardinal posted at least nine wins every season but one. Since then they haven’t won more than four. The days of Andrew Luck, Christian McCaffrey and Toby Gerhart seem like a lifetime ago.

First-year coach Troy Taylor said at Pac-12 media day that the Cardinal are comfortable as underdogs. That’s good, because Stanford has a lot to work out, replacing several starters on both sides. A bonus: talented running back E.J. Smith is set to return after missing most of last season with an injury.

Key: “Sagarin rank” is average national ranking inJeff Sagarin’s season ratingsfrom 2018-22 and “247 recruiting” is average national ranking in247Sports Composite recruiting class rankings from 2019-23. Winning percentages, overall and in Pac-12 play, reflect 2018-22 seasons.

Scouting report

We asked a Pac-12 assistant coach to break down some of the top teams in the league to gain insight into the conference and how it might shake out this year under the condition of anonymity to permit him to speak freely:

• On USC: “They’ve done a good job in the portal. The quarterback is unbelievable … some of the skill guys they got are good. They’re a good football team. I think they’re gonna go a long way. I would think they’re probably going to go to the playoffs. Defensively, I have questions. Are some of the transfer guys going to help them? Is Grinch going to be able to do anything with the scheme to fix problems people kind of gauged them on last year?”

• Utah: “I think they’re going to be good, but they’re not the Utah of old with the big a– defensive linemen and the power and the linebackers. They’ll be good because they’re coached really well and they do what they do. … They struggled defensively (last year). I just don’t think they have the personnel like they did in years past.”

• Oregon: “They lost a lot of O-linemen. It’s very concerning. Lost the O-line coach too. That’s a question for me. Defensively, I think they’ll be good. They’ve got some good D-linemen, secondary guys, linebackers. But the whole O-line deal and they had a change in offensive coordinators. Is he going to be able to adapt to Bo Nix?”

• Washington: “I question their defensive scheme. I don’t know if they know exactly what they’re doing. The offense will be good.”

• Oregon State: “They do a great job offensively. They do a great job defensively. They overachieve. They’re well-coached. … I’ve watched them on tape. They’re impressive. I think (D.J. Uiagalelei) is going to help them big time.”

• Arizona: “I don’t think their defense will be good enough (to get them to a bowl). I think there’s holes in that defensive scheme. I think their O-line is going to be questionable. The quarterback’s good but I don’t think they’ll get it turned around this year.”

• UCLA: “(They’ve) got a lot of transfers. … I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be. Chip does a good job with the offense. He’ll adapt with the personnel to make it strong. The defense will be older.”

Safe predictions for the Pac-12 in 2023

Haller: After a first-half schedule that includes TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon and USC, the Coach Prime hype fizzles and reality settles in.

Kamrani: If he stays healthy, Caleb Williams becomes the first player to win the Heisman Trophy twice since Archie Griffin at Ohio State in 1974 and 1975.

Bold predictions for the Pac-12 in 2023

Haller: With Rising on the mend, Utah starts slowly but finds its stride midseason and advances to the Pac-12 championship, where it beats USC for the second season in a row.

Kamrani: USC faces Oregon State in the 2023 Pac-12 title game and all 60,000 residents of Corvallis make the trip to Vegas that first week of December and paint the town orange and black.

Editor’s note: This is part of a series of State of the Conference previews of the 10 FBS conferences entering the 2023 season. Read the others here: Big Ten.

(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)