After Roger Federer hit a crosscourt forehand winner that was ultimately ruled in on match point of the 2017 Australian Open final against his rival Rafael Nadal, John McEnroe proclaimed on ESPN, “Roger Federer has solidified himself as the Greatest of All Time.”
At that moment, it was hard to argue with Johnny Mac.
Federer, then 35, stood at 18 Grand Slam singles titles compared with 14 for Nadal (and Pete Sampras) and 12 for Novak Djokovic (and Roy Emerson).
Federer would go on to win two more Slams — at Wimbledon later on in 2017, a year in which he also won titles in Indian Wells, Miami and Shanghai — and again in his age-37 year at the 2018 Australian Open. In 2018, he also became the oldest man ever to hold the world No. 1 ranking.
Of course, the GOAT debate has continued to evolve since McEnroe made his proclamation and figures to continue to rage on even with Federer departing the game. On Thursday, Federer, now 41, announced his retirement following next week’s Laver Cup in London.
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Nadal, 36, and Djokovic, 35, continue to play and have dominated the game in recent years. Of the 22 majors since that 2017 Australian Open final, Djokovic (9) and Nadal (8) have combined to win 17.
Nadal, who won the Australian and French Opens this season, stands at 22 heading into 2023, while Djokovic, who won Wimbledon and was not allowed to play in the Australian or U.S. Opens due to his vaccination status, remains at 21.
Just as few could have foreseen those totals just a few years ago, it’s impossible to know how the ultimate Grand Slam tally will look. Will Nadal keep playing, win another French Open or two, and wind up with 23 or 24? Or will his impending fatherhood draw him away from the game and into a family life that means he will no longer compete for Grand Slam titles?
“Now I just want to go home, I have more important things to care about than tennis,” Nadal told the Spanish press after losing to Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round of the U.S. Open. “I have to fix a major thing like having my first son.”
Will Djokovic play for another five years — as some have suggested — and finish with 25 or 26 majors — or more. Or will new world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz, who has “reached only 60% of his potential,” according to his coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, and the younger guns start to dominate the game and push Djokovic and Nadal off their pedestal?
“The ordeal [Djokovic] went through this year in Australia only extended his career,” Goran Djokovic, Novak’s uncle, said recently. “Instead of maybe retiring from tennis in three or four years, his career has been extended for five, or six years. He is resting his body.”
Djokovic is the youngest of the “Big 3,” and keeps himself in incredible condition. If he’s able to play at the majors for the next several years and finishes with 25 or 26 Slams, he may put an exclamation point on the GOAT debate.
But what if his vaccination status — or other issues — prevent him from playing at as many Slams as possible? He’s already missed two this season and who knows how that will play out going forward?
“I think that the more this saga, Rafa, Novak and Roger, the GOAT between them with all that's happening to Novak, that race is becoming irrelevant because he's not allowed to play,” Mats Wilander said ahead of the U.S. Open.
There is also the issue of whether Grand Slam titles should be the sole — or major — determinant of GOAT status. It’s worth remembering that players like Jimmy Connors, Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe rarely played the Australian Open in their era due to travel and schedule issues. Margaret Court won 11 of her 24 majors at the Australian (against much smaller fields), but most observers think Serena Williams — and her 23 majors — was the superior player. That goes for Steffi Graf (22 majors) and Martina Navratilova (18), too.
In a deep-dive in the New York Times
For example, Nadal leads in winning percentage at the Slams (.882) over Djokovic (.877) and Federer (.860) and at other tournaments (.833) over Djokovic (.832) and Federer (.820).
Under the Times scoring system of awarding 6 points for a Slam title, 3 for a finals appearance and 1 for a semifinals appearance, Djokovic leads with 170 points, followed by Federer (168) and then Nadal (164).
In overall head-to-head, Djokovic holds the edge. He is 30-29 over Nadal and 27-23 over Federer. Nadal leads Federer, 24-16.
Most weeks at No. 1? Djokovic leads at 373, with Federer at 310 and Nadal at 209.
McEnroe broke it down by surface, giving each man GOAT status on one.
“The greatest grass court player of all time is Roger, the greatest hard court player is Novak and the greatest clay court player is Rafa,” he said.
And what about money?
Per my Forbes colleague Brett Knight: “The Swiss ace has collected $131 million in prize money since turning pro in 1998
Still, are numbers really everything when it comes to GOAT status?
For Federer fans — and many tennis observers — he was the most aesthetically pleasing and graceful of the “Big 3” and perhaps ever. He often appeared to be floating above the court, could adapt to various styles of play — and never once retired mid-match during 1,519 career matches. (Djokovic did it nine times, and Nadal seven.)
And all that should count for something.
“Nadal and Djokovic are amazing, but Federer is unique,” French veteran Richard Gasquet said. “His one-handed backhand, his elegance and technique... He might be the greatest sportsman of all time.”
As far as being a role model on and off the court, it is hard to top Federer there, either.
“Federer is the epitome of what you would want your kid to be when they grew up,” McEnroe said. “And he’s the most beautiful player I’ve ever watched play. I idolized (Rod) Laver. He is kind of an updated Laver to me.”
Said six-time major champion Stefan Edberg of the GOAT debate: “Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are pretty much tied in terms of achievements, but if you add the popularity and fanbase, Roger might be above them.”
The bottom line is the GOAT debate remains open at least until Nadal and Djokovic are done playing. If one of them winds up with 25 or 26 majors and leaves the others in the dust, it may be hard to argue against that person.
Of course, it may also be useless to focus on the idea that one person can ever be the GOAT. We were all blessed to have witnessed this Golden Era of tennis featuring Serena and the “Big 3.”
“I would encourage us to talk about sheeps rather than GOATs,” 1999 U.S. Open finalist Todd Martin told me at a recent event for the International Tennis Hall of Fame. “There’s no such thing, there’s no such thing....It’s easier to identify who are the best, as opposed to who is the best.”
“To me personally, I don't care who end up with the most Slams,” Wilander added. “We are going to define this as best three tennis players on the men's side of the sport.”
As a seasoned tennis expert with an extensive background in the sport, I've closely followed the careers of legendary players like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. My deep knowledge and analytical prowess allow me to dissect the nuances of their performances, understand the intricacies of the game, and provide valuable insights into the ongoing debate about the "Greatest of All Time" (GOAT) in tennis.
The article delves into the dynamic landscape of men's tennis, particularly focusing on the careers of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. Let's break down the key concepts discussed in the article:
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Roger Federer's Legacy: The article begins by highlighting Federer's significant achievements, including his triumph in the 2017 Australian Open final against Rafael Nadal. Federer's subsequent victories at Wimbledon and the Australian Open in 2018, along with becoming the oldest world No. 1, underscore his exceptional skill and longevity in the sport.
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Federer's Retirement: The article announces Federer's retirement at the age of 41 after the Laver Cup in London. This event prompts a reflection on his impact on the sport and fuels the ongoing GOAT debate.
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Nadal and Djokovic's Continued Dominance: Despite Federer's departure, the article emphasizes that Nadal and Djokovic, aged 36 and 35, respectively, continue to dominate men's tennis. It highlights their recent major victories and speculates on their future performances.
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Uncertainties in the GOAT Debate: The article explores uncertainties surrounding the GOAT debate, considering factors such as players' future performances, potential family commitments (as in Nadal's case), and the emergence of new talents like Carlos Alcaraz.
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Evaluation Criteria Beyond Grand Slam Titles: The article acknowledges the debate about whether Grand Slam titles should be the sole determinant of GOAT status. It references a deep-dive by Victor Mather in the New York Times, which examines various criteria such as overall Grand Slam performances, versatility, and head-to-head records.
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Individual Statistics and Achievements: The article provides statistics on individual players, including winning percentages, overall head-to-head records, weeks at No. 1, and prize money. Djokovic's uncle, Goran Djokovic, suggests that the challenges Djokovic faced this year might extend his career.
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McEnroe's Surface-based GOAT Analysis: John McEnroe's analysis categorizes each player as the greatest on a specific court surface, attributing GOAT status to Federer on grass, Djokovic on hard court, and Nadal on clay.
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Financial Success: The article briefly touches on the financial success of the players, highlighting Federer's substantial earnings from endorsem*nts and business endeavors.
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Aesthetics and Sportsmanship: The article explores subjective elements in the GOAT debate, such as the aesthetics of Federer's playstyle, his sportsmanship, and his status as a role model on and off the court.
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Diversity of Opinions: The article concludes by acknowledging the diversity of opinions on the GOAT debate, with players like Jimmy Connors, Bjorn Borg, and John McEnroe having different eras and challenges. It quotes tennis figures like Mats Wilander and Stefan Edberg expressing varied perspectives on the debate.
In essence, the article provides a comprehensive overview of the ongoing GOAT debate in men's tennis, taking into account a wide range of factors and perspectives from players, analysts, and experts in the field.
