Weekly Forex Forecast: 25 - 29 May (2024)

Fundamental Analysis

By Orbex

Weekly Forex Forecast: 25 - 29 May (2)

The US Dollar came out tops last week staging one of the strongest comebacks after declining since late March. Boosted by stronger than expected housing data, the FOMC meeting minutes which was a non-event and a hawkish than expected speech by Janet Yellen late on Friday helped the Greenback to reverse from the lows. CPI data released on Friday also saw the core inflation rise 1.8% on an annualized basis reiterating the fact that the Fed would continue looking at the economic data before deciding when to hike the US Federal Funds benchmark rates.

The British Pound and the Euro were the weakest currencies last week as the ECB officials elaborated on their QE plans for the next couple of months while the Pound Sterling succumbed to speeches from various BoE officials. A better than expected retail sales which saw the Pound Sterling rally across the board failed to keep the currency supported as the BoE officials took turns on Friday

Fundamentals for the Week 25 – 29 May

DateTimeCurrencyDetailExpectedPrevious
25-May02:50JPYTrade Balance-0.38T0.00T
08:00JPYBOJ Monthly Report
18:00USDFOMC Member Fischer Speaks
26-May01:45NZDTrade Balance105M631M
02:50JPYSPPI y/y0.60%3.20%
10:15CHFEmployment Level4.21M4.23M
13:00GBPCBI Realized Sales1912
15:30USDCore Durable Goods Orders m/m0.50%0.30%
USDDurable Goods Orders m/m-0.40%4.70%
16:00USDHPI m/m0.70%0.70%
USDS&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y4.60%5.00%
16:45USDFlash Services PMI5757.4
17:00USDCB Consumer Confidence95.395.2
USDNew Home Sales501K481K
USDRichmond Manufacturing Index0-3
19:30USDFOMC Member Fischer Speaks
27-May02:50JPYMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes
03:10USDFOMC Member Lacker Speaks
03:30AUDMI Leading Index m/m-0.30%
03:45AUDRBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks
04:30AUDConstruction Work Done q/q-1.40%-0.20%
09:00CHFUBS Consumption Indicator1.35
EURGfK German Consumer Climate1010.1
27th-3rdGBPNationwide HPI m/m1.00%
Day 1ALLG7 Meetings
13:00EURECB Financial Stability Report
TentativeEURGerman 30-y Bond Auction1.07|1.3
16:00EURBelgian NBB Business Climate-5.7-6.2
17:00CADBOC Rate Statement
CADOvernight Rate0.75%0.75%
28-May02:50JPYRetail Sales y/y5.90%-9.70%
04:30AUDPrivate Capital Expenditure q/q-2.30%-2.20%
09:00CHFTrade Balance2.77B2.52B
EURGerman Import Prices m/m0.50%1.00%
09:20USDFOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:30GBPSecond Estimate GDP q/q0.40%0.30%
GBPPrelim Business Investment q/q1.10%-0.90%
GBPBBA Mortgage Approvals39.2K38.8K
GBPIndex of Services 3m/3m0.50%0.70%
TentativeEURItalian 10-y Bond Auction1.40|1.6
Day 2ALLG7 Meetings
15:30CADCurrent Account-13.9B
CADRMPI m/m-0.90%
CADIPPI m/m0.30%
USDUnemployment Claims272K274K
17:00USDPending Home Sales m/m0.80%1.10%
17:30USDNatural Gas Storage92B
18:00USDCrude Oil Inventories-2.7M
29-May01:45NZDBuilding Consents m/m11.00%
02:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence44
02:30JPYHousehold Spending y/y3.10%-10.60%
JPYTokyo Core CPI y/y0.20%0.40%
JPYNational Core CPI y/y0.20%2.20%
JPYUnemployment Rate3.40%3.40%
02:50JPYPrelim Industrial Production m/m1.10%-0.80%
04:00AUDHIA New Home Sales m/m4.40%
NZDANZ Business Confidence30.2
04:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit m/m0.50%0.50%
08:00JPYHousing Starts y/y0.10%0.70%
08:45CHFGDP q/q0.00%0.60%
09:00EURGerman Retail Sales m/m
09:45EURFrench Consumer Spending m/m0.40%-0.60%
10:00CHFKOF Economic Barometer90.389.5
EURSpanish Flash CPI y/y-0.50%-0.60%
11:00EURM3 Money Supply y/y4.90%4.60%
EURPrivate Loans y/y0.40%0.10%
12:00EURItalian Prelim CPI m/m0.10%0.30%
Day 3ALLG7 Meetings
15:30CADGDP m/m0.20%0.00%
USDPrelim GDP q/q-0.90%0.20%
USDPrelim GDP Price Index q/q-0.10%-0.10%
16:45USDChicago PMI53.152.3
17:00USDRevised UoM Consumer Sentiment9088.6
USDRevised UoM Inflation Expectations2.90%

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

BoC Rate Statement & GDP: The Bank of Canada will hold its monthly monetary policy meeting on the 27th of May with the consensus expecting that the Canadian Central Bank will not change the interest rates. However, BoC Governor Poloz is expected to be dovish on the economy. On the 29th May, the Canadian monthly GDP is expected to rise 0.2% for the month of April. The Canadian dollar lost ground to the Greenback last week despite a strong rally in Crude Oil prices. Recent inflation data from the country was also weak and this is expected to play into the BoC’s dovish view at its rate statement.

Slow week for the Euro: This week there is not much of economic data scheduled from Europe and the markets will see a short week due to a bank holiday on Monday in some of the major European economies. Focus could likely shift to Greece among other things.

UK GDP second estimates: After falling short of expectations during the first estimate, markets will be looking to the second GDP estimates for the first quarter with expectations of a rise to 0.4% from 0.3% first estimates. A modest pickup in the revised GDP should be able to boost the Pound Sterling. The UK is also closed on Monday.

Busy week for the Yen: Data from Japan this week includes retail sales and national Core CPI and unemployment rate, all of which could provide investors with enough data that could be taken into consideration during the next BoJ’s monetary policy meeting. So far, the Japanese Central Bank has remained optimistic that the inflation target og 2% will be reached and in this regards, the retail sales data and the national core CPI could offer early hints into the larger inflation puzzle.

US Revised GDP: Markets head into a new week with the US second revised GDP on investor’s minds. It is largely expected that we could see a downward revised GDP heading into a contraction, which if true could spell one of the weakest quarterly GDP growth in recent years. Besides the GDP data due late in the week on Friday, Core durable goods orders and Fed speak will keep the markets busy. The US markets will be closed on Monday.

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Weekly Forex Forecast: 25 - 29 May (2024)

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Top 10 forex indicators for FX traders
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To predict forex movements, traders use two types of analysis: fundamental and technical. Fundamental analysis takes external events and policies into account, affecting currency prices. On the other hand, technical analysis relies on historical price data and patterns to predict future movements.

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Forex is considered more volatile than the stock market because currency values are influenced by multiple political, social, and economic factors every other day. Stocks typically follow predictable market cycles and are less volatile than currencies.

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Fundamental analysis is often used to analyze changes in the forex market by monitoring figures such as interest rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and other economic data that come out of countries.

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Machine learning offers significant advantages for forex analysis. Its integration into forex prediction software may enhance trading strategies in several key ways: Real-Time Data Analysis: Algorithms excel in analysing vast amounts of real-time data, which is crucial for accurate forex daily analysis and prediction.

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