What recent history says to expect from a QB drafted No. 1 (2024)

We have spent much of the past three months excitedly debating the merits of the quarterbacks who could become the No. 1 overall pick in this week's NFL Draft, the intersection of the most important position in football and a team's choice of any player available.

A quarterback going No. 1 overall could lead a franchise to the Super Bowl like Peyton Manning did with the Colts, or help win multiple Super Bowls like Troy Aikman did with the Cowboys.

But the key word there is "could." Even with the most important and thorough evaluation process in the sport, it's still a crapshoot, both short-term and long-term. Immediate impact, you say? Jumping right in as a Week 1 starter? Sure. But in terms of No. 1 overall picks and production as a rookie quarterback, we have two words for you: Davis Mills.

Now, to be clear, Mills was a third-round pick, 67th overall, by the Texans out of Stanford in 2021. He's soon to be displaced as a starting NFL quarterback, but we mention him more to temper expectations of the soon-to-be-crowned top pick, because recent history shows that's what he'll play like his rookie year.

• Average rookie year for the past 10 quarterbacks to go No. 1: 17.4 touchdowns, 14.0 interceptions, 3,311 yards, 78.9 QB rating.
• 2022 stats for soon-to-be-replaced Davis Mills for the three-win Texans: 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 3,118 yards, 78.8 QB rating.

As part of the immense buildup to Thursday's first round, we wanted to add some perspective on quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall and reasonable expectations for their rookie season. How soon do they play? How much do their teams improve? How likely is a winning record that first year? How long does it take that guy to make a Pro Bowl? How quickly does that team turn into a playoff presence?

Whether it's Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson or some other quarterback, it's no surprise that a QB will go No. 1 this year. That has happened in 10 of the past 14 drafts, and four of the past five, the exception being the Jaguars and pass-rusher Travon Walker last year. Quarterbacks went first in 10 of the previous 14 drafts as well, so this isn't anything new. For perspective, and a reminder that the game has changed a smidge in 50 years, from 1972 to 1986, there were only two quarterbacks taken at No. 1 over a span of 15 drafts: John Elway and ... Steve Bartkowski.

2023 NFL Draft: Who goes No. 1?

David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss why the Panthers will select Alabama QB Bryce Young first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.

First off, this year's No. 1 pick is already exceptional in one important sense: He's not going to a terrible team. Carolina went 7-10 last year before trading with the Bears for the top overall pick, and nearly all the recent QBs going first overall have gone to teams with no more than three wins in the previous season. The only exception in the past 30 years: Jared Goff, when the Rams traded with the Titans for the top pick in 2016, so Los Angeles had gone 7-9 the year before ... and went 4-12 in Goff's rookie year.

The exciting news is that those 2016 Rams are the only team of the past 10 to take a quarterback No. 1 overall not to improve in his rookie season. The other nine all won at least two more games the next year, and the average is a bump of 3.65 wins. The 2012 Colts added nine wins with Andrew Luck, the 2018 Browns added seven wins (and a tie!) with Baker Mayfield in 2018 (after zero wins to earn the top pick), and the 2010 Rams added six wins with Sam Bradford.

Taking a quarterback with the top pick is a massive investment for a team, and as such, it almost always pushes that rookie out there front and center from the very beginning. Of the past 10 quarterbacks to go No. 1 overall, only two weren't Week 1 starters: Mayfield didn't play until Week 3 and didn't start until Week 4 in 2018, and Goff was on the bench for the first 10 games of 2016. Everyone else started from the very beginning. Those 10 quarterbacks taken No. 1 averaged 13.8 games as rookies, with the Bengals' Joe Burrow (2020) and the Lions' Matthew Stafford (2009) as the most notable rookie injuries.

Will the top picks win much as rookies? Generally, no. Of the past 10 top-pick quarterbacks, only one had a winning record as a rookie, that being Luck in 2012, guiding the Colts to an 11-5 record. The aggregate win-loss record as rookie starters is 49-87-2, which works out to winning 36% of the time, essentially a 6-11 record if they played a full season.

Will they pass for a bunch of yards? Usually, yes. Seven of the past 10 quarterbacks to go No. 1 overall threw for at least 3,500 yards as rookies — that's basically everyone who played a full season. There are three 4,000-yard rookie seasons: the Panthers' Cam Newton in 2011, Luck in 2012 and the Bucs' Jameis Winston in 2015. (The only other 4,000-yard rookie season in NFL history came from the Chargers' Justin Herbert, the sixth overall pick in 2020).

And because they're getting thrown into the fire right away, the No. 1 QBs are rarely polished passers as rookies. Of those past 10 No. 1 quarterbacks, only one had a TD-to-INT ratio of 2:1 or better as a rookie: Burrow, who had 13 touchdowns against five interceptions with the Bengals in 2020. If they're playing a full season, double-digit interceptions is basically a lock, with Kyler Murray (12 in 2019) and Mayfield (14 in 2018) the unimpressive leaders in limiting picks in a full rookie season. As mentioned earlier, the average rookie season for the past 10 quarterbacks going first overall is 17.4 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, which is basically 2022 Davis Mills.

2023 NFL Draft: Will the Texans pass on a quarterback?

David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss why Houston could pass on a quarterback in the first round.

The last quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie was Winston in 2015, and he was the fifth replacement quarterback chosen, so the 11th passer in a game that starts with six Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Those 10 quarterbacks have totaled just 16 Pro Bowl selections between them in 70-plus seasons in the NFL.

Want some better news? The second year typically shows considerable improvement. The past eight quarterbacks to go No. 1 all threw for at least 3,800 yards as NFL sophom*ores — eight, because Bradford and Stafford both were sidelined for much of their second seasons. Instead of a 17-14 TD/INT ratio, that jumps to 25.6 touchdowns vs. 12.6 interceptions in those past eight, which works out to a 47% increase in touchdown passes while throwing fewer interceptions. So there's that.

How quickly does a top-pick quarterback get a team to the playoffs? Of the past 10, only four have won more than one playoff game with the team that drafted them. Burrow leads the way with a 5-2 playoff record, followed by Luck (4-4), Newton (3-4) and Goff (2-3). Trevor Lawrence and Mayfield each have a single playoff win, Murray and Stafford lost in their only playoff games with their original teams, and Winston and Bradford never made the playoffs with the teams that picked them first overall.

Burrow making a Super Bowl with the Bengals is remarkable in recent history. The last quarterback picked at No. 1 to win a Super Bowl with his original team was Eli Manning, twice with the Giants (yes, the Chargers drafted him and quickly traded him to the Giants, but that's more semantics). Before that, it's Peyton Manning with the Colts and Aikman with the Cowboys. That's three in 21 quarterbacks taken first overall in the past 34 drafts, just 1-in-7 odds.

David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss whether the Colts should select a quarterback with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Still, in avoiding a bad team as a rookie, this year's No. 1 pick won't have to do too much to distinguish himself from recent company. Just get Carolina to eight wins — one more than last year's team — and he'll be just the second No. 1 pick quarterback (with Luck) to do that in the past 20 seasons. Throw for a modest 24 touchdowns (as 12 NFL quarterbacks did last year) and that will be the second-most (behind Mayfield) since Peyton Manning did it 25 years ago.

And here's the cool one: If this No. 1 pick can lead Carolina to a division title in 2023 — and remember no NFC South team had a winning record last year, so that isn't asking that much — he'll be the first quarterback in NFL history to be picked No. 1 and lead his team to a division title as a rookie.

You can go clear back to 1936 and no quarterback picked first has won a division title, and only four have mustered a second-place finish in the Super Bowl era. Such quarterbacks finish last in their division more often than not — 14 times in 26 years, including Peyton Manning's Colts finishing fifth in 1998 and Tim Couch's Browns finishing sixth in 1999. The 2004 Chargers picked Eli first, traded him to New York and won their division (with Drew Brees at quarterback), but the actual quarterback going first overall has never won a division title as a rookie.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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