When will title rivals Arsenal and Manchester City start thinking about goal difference? (2024)

The discussion surrounding the Premier League title race is focused on the number of games remaining and the potential points totals of Arsenal and Manchester City.

Meanwhile, the two sets of supporters are transfixed by the difficulty level of each team’s remaining fixtures and the potential for any slip-ups.

But at what point does goal difference come into the conversation?

Arsenal are currently six points clear and have eight games left to play. City have nine matches to go — with their game in hand away against Brighton & Hove Albion yet to be scheduled.

This means that if City beat Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on April 26 and Brighton at the Amex Stadium, the two sides will be level on points if they both win all of their other matches. The title would then be decided by goal difference.

Right now, Arsenal’s is 43 and City’s is 48. Five goals is not a big gap at all and it could easily swing in the coming weeks.

Two teams, each playing 3,420 minutes plus injury time over the course of a 38-game season and yet all that separates them come the final minutes on the last day is a goal or two?

It sounds ridiculous, but a Premier League winner has already been decided on goal difference: Manchester City dramatically won the league ahead of rivals Manchester United in 2011-12.

That season saw both Manchester clubs win their final game by a one-goal margin, but United will look back on the wider run-in with regret.

Yes, they lost to Wigan Athletic, City and gave up a 3-1 lead over Everton to draw 4-4, but equally damaging in the end was the fact that, over their final six games, their goal difference was just five. Meanwhile, Roberto Mancini’s City side registered a goal difference of 15 in their final six matches.

Ultimately, both sides finished on 89 points but City won the title thanks to their goal difference of 64 being superior to United’s 56.

All the ingredients are there for the title to be decided on goal difference again this season. After all, football has a funny way of coming full circle and Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta’s only league title as a player was won on goal difference — with Rangers in Scotland in 2002-03.

Celtic and Rangers both finished on 97 points in that campaign but the latter were crowned champions as a result of having a superior goal difference (73 versus 72).

Rangers sealed the title by winning 6-1 against Dunfermline Athletic on the final day, with Arteta scoring a penalty in injury time.

The prospect of two football perfectionists in Pep Guardiola and Arteta being reduced to frantically gesticulating and tallying up goals in a 90-minute free-for-all on May 28 feels like an appropriate denouement to the first chapter of this emerging rivalry.

So, how much will goal difference factor into the thinking of Arteta over the coming weeks?

If Arsenal take an early lead against West Ham United on Sunday, do they attempt to be more aggressive in their push for their second? And if the second comes, do they then go for the jugular or tactically manage the rest of the game?

It will be a balancing act, but neither team can ignore goal difference. It would be naive of Arsenal to purely focus on winning games if they are comfortably ahead because, if there is one thing we have learned about this City team when it comes to the home straight in a title race, it is that if you don’t beat them yourself, nobody else will.

That’s why Arsenal need to be in the mindset that they must win every match by as many goals as possible.

In 2018-19, Guardiola’s team won their last 14 Premier League games to win the title. In 2021-22, they won seven of their last nine and drew the other two to be crowned champions. On both occasions, they finished a point ahead of second-placed Liverpool.

In City’s final nine games in 2018-19, they improved their goal difference by 16, something Arsenal (currently five GD worse off than their rivals) should bear in mind.

Last season, City did even better — improving their goal difference by 23 in their final nine games (including the two draws). Liverpool could only improve theirs by 13 over the same period, which shows how ruthless City can be with the pressure on in a thrilling title race. Guardiola’s team finished with a goal difference of 73 compared to Liverpool’s 68.

Arsenal must attack their remaining fixtures with relentless urgency. That is a huge ask, given they have to play City, Newcastle United and Chelsea, but recent history tells us they are going to have to be close to perfect in the run-in if they are to win their first title since 2003-04.

West Ham, Southampton, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers are not guaranteed wins by any means, but Arteta’s team will be favourites in all of these games and, if they can come out of the traps as they have done in recent weeks, it bodes well for racking up the goals.

Prior to the Liverpool game on Sunday, Arsenal had taken the lead inside the opening 35 minutes 15 times this season and failed to win just one of those matches: the 1-1 draw with Southampton in October.

So, if Arteta decides there are more goals to be had in a game and that the opposition is showing little ambition to get back into the contest, how does he go about it?

One school of thought is to bring on fresh legs from the bench and maintain the intensity, which will in turn help protect the fitness of his key starters and ensure they have the energy required to win the next game.

Leandro Trossard, Reiss Nelson, Fabio Vieira, Emile Smith Rowe, Kieran Tierney and Eddie Nketiah — depending on his fitness — are all good options to have on the bench.

However, there is also an argument that using all five substitutes can upset a team’s rhythm. If Arsenal are in the groove and looking likely to keep adding to the scoresheet, does it make more sense to stick with the team on the field and put the floor to the accelerator that way?

Arteta will be wrestling with these decisions over the coming weeks in what promises to be an epic sprint to the finish line.

Arsenal play twice before the trip to the Etihad while City only play once in the league, which means the London club could be nine points clear with just six games remaining come kick-off on April 26. Though City will have two games in hand.

Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, it is vital Arsenal fill their boots whenever possible. You never know how important those late goals in a 5-0 procession could be in the grand scheme of things.

(Top photo: Dave Howarth – CameraSport via Getty Images)