Let me say straight up that I should not have to write this article. It should be so obvious that in any PPR format, your near absolute preference should be to put WRs in the Flex. The response to this article should be, “Oh, come on, Mike, tell me something I don’t know!”
I’m sad to report that many don’t know it. In fact, I hear “experts” all the time talking about ideal third RBs for their PPR Flex. Let me say it plainly: There is no ideal running back for your PPR Flex. It’s sub-optimal. Decidedly so. We talk all the time about increasing win probability in your leagues by just doing easy structural things that have nothing to do with player picking yet increase your odds of qualifying for the playoffs/winning your league by at least 50% (from about 8.5% to about 13%). Remember, picking players is really hard, largely random and really no one can reliably do it year after year. For god’s sake, NFL teams can’t even reliably pick players — and that’s all they do.
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So why flex WRs in PPR? It’s just math. You are raising your weekly points ceiling without really lowering your floor. You have to look at your WRs as a group. Each has some chance, ranging from about 10% to 30%, to post a monster week. Would you rather have two of these tickets, or three, and even four (depending on whether you play Flex 9 or Flex 10, more on that later)?
Let’s look at the numbers from 2021 to illustrate the point, data courtesy ofPro-Football-Reference.
20-point+ PPR weeks: 206 for WRs and 155 for RBs. So 33% more for WRs.
25-point+ PPR weeks: 92 for WRs, 64 for RBs, so 44% more for WRs.
30-point+ PPR weeks: 43 for WRs, 23 for RBs, 87% more for WRs.
I thought the 20-point spread would be closer. But I knew the more points we sorted by, the more the advantage would swing to WRs. And that’s exactly what happened even though WRs massacred RBs even in 20+ PPR points. When you get to the level of PPR performance where one player basically wins you the week, 30+ points, a WR is almost twice as likely to do it than a RB.
Even though I know the results will be similar, let’s do 2020:
20+: 221 WRs, 141 RBs (43% more for WRs)
25+: 102 WRs, 67 RBs (52% more)
30+: 41 for WRs, 25 for RBs (64% more)
No need to go further with this. It’s always going to be true that WRs are more explosive than RBs in PPR. It was the entire reason PPR was invented, for cryin’ out loud — to hurt the value of RBs.
Let me now turn to the format issue that is by far the most important thing to qualify when you’re asking a question or deciding on what position to draft. It’s something no one talks about. PPR vs. Standard doesn’t matter nearly as much as this. What am I talking about?
Are you Flex 9 or Flex 10?
Flex 9 is two WRs and one Flex. Flex 10 is three WRs and one Flex. It’s how many starters you have including your Flex.
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I will speak for the expert community and tell you that we do overall ranks for Flex 10. Many major structural strategies like zeroRB or avoiding dead zone running backs in Rounds 3-5, and anything else that tries to convince you to prioritize WRs in your roster construction, assumes you play Flex 10. If you play Flex 9, forget all this. You have to prioritize RBs. The team with the best RBs even in full PPR is probably going to win/have the most points. Everyone has to play basically the same way.
So then in Flex 9, flex RBs, right?
NO!!! The one way you can get a major structural edge in Flex 9 PPR is to flex a WR. It’s far more advantageous to do it here than in Flex 10. Again, the math is simple.
In Flex 10, flexing a WR gives you 33% more WRs (four instead of three). Fantastic.
In Flex 9, flexing a WR gives you 50% more WRs (three instead of two). Even more fantastic. Again, this significantly increases the odds that you get multiple good weeks or one monster week out of your WRs.
(As an aside, in Flex 9, a TE who would be equivalent to a Top 20 WR is THE most important edge you can get just because there are less active players for your opponent to make up for your expected edge at the TE position.)
I’m not even going to get into who you should draft for your Flex here. It really doesn’t matter as far as your win probability boost. You just want as many Top 30 (or Top 35 or Top 40) receivers you can get. It’s marginal whether I think a guy is Top 25 or just Top 35. The point is that you get the higher expected win probability as long as you are drafting WRs for your Flex in the ballpark of their ADPs… though the higher, the better.
In Flex 9 PPR, my ideal draft (first eight rounds) would be RB, TE, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB.
In Flex 10 PPR, it would be RB, TE, WR, WR, WR, WR, RB, WR
(Top photo: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)
Greetings, enthusiasts of fantasy football strategy. Allow me to dive into the intricacies of a topic that might seem glaringly obvious to some but remains overlooked by many: the strategic choice of placing wide receivers (WRs) in the Flex position in PPR (points per reception) formats.
I speak with the authority of someone deeply entrenched in the world of fantasy football strategy, having not only observed but actively participated in the ongoing discourse among experts. It's disheartening to note that despite the apparent simplicity of this strategy, there are still misguided voices advocating for running backs (RBs) in the Flex position. I find myself compelled to emphasize that there is no ideal running back for your PPR Flex – it's suboptimal, and I can substantiate this claim.
Let's address the evidence, the bedrock of any compelling argument. In the realm of fantasy football, numbers reign supreme. Drawing from the 2021 season, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, I present a stark contrast in performance between WRs and RBs. The statistics speak volumes:
- 20-point+ PPR weeks: 206 for WRs and 155 for RBs (33% more for WRs).
- 25-point+ PPR weeks: 92 for WRs, 64 for RBs (44% more for WRs).
- 30-point+ PPR weeks: 43 for WRs, 23 for RBs (87% more for WRs).
Even when considering the threshold of a 20-point performance, where one might expect parity, WRs outshine RBs. The advantage progressively amplifies with higher point thresholds. In 30+ point PPR weeks, a WR is almost twice as likely to be the game-changer.
To further solidify my case, let's delve into the numbers from the 2020 season, revealing a consistent pattern of WR dominance:
- 20+: 221 WRs, 141 RBs (43% more for WRs).
- 25+: 102 WRs, 67 RBs (52% more).
- 30+: 41 for WRs, 25 for RBs (64% more).
This historical data reaffirms that WRs consistently outperform RBs in PPR formats. It's essential to recognize that the very invention of PPR was rooted in diminishing the value of RBs.
Now, let's pivot to a crucial yet often overlooked factor: the format, specifically Flex 9 versus Flex 10. This nuance holds immense weight in shaping your fantasy football strategy. Flex 9 comprises two WRs and one Flex, while Flex 10 involves three WRs and one Flex.
The industry consensus, as I confidently assert, revolves around overall ranks for Flex 10. Strategies like zeroRB or prioritizing WRs in roster construction are tailored for Flex 10. However, in Flex 9, where RBs take precedence, I challenge this notion. The key lies in flexing a WR, not an RB.
The math is straightforward and incontestable. In Flex 10, flexing a WR grants you 33% more WRs, a fantastic advantage. Yet, in Flex 9, flexing a WR provides a whopping 50% more WRs, an even more advantageous position. This significantly elevates the probability of multiple good weeks or a monster week from your WRs.
In conclusion, for Flex 9 PPR, my strategic counsel for the first eight rounds would be RB, TE, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB. For Flex 10 PPR, the optimal approach would be RB, TE, WR, WR, WR, WR, RB, WR.
In this nuanced realm of fantasy football, where statistics meet strategy, the choice to flex WRs in PPR is not merely a preference – it's a mathematically sound decision, and the evidence resoundingly supports it.
