Something that I don’t think is talked about enough is that not only is Barry Bonds the only member of the 500/500 club, he’s the only member of the 400/400 club, too. Out of all the incredible athletes who have played baseball, only Bonds accumulated 400 home runs and 400 steals. No one else has really come all that close. Bonds’ father and godfather might have been the first, but Bobby Bonds didn’t finish with enough home runs to make it, and Willie Mays didn’t finish with enough stolen bases.
It’s possible that the next member of the 400/400 club is playing right now. There’s at least one all-time great in the middle of his career, and another young player who is off to a great start. Who might possibly be rubbing shoulders with Bonds in one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball?
The Baseball Gauge has a tool called Bill James’ Favorite Toy which calculates the probability of a player reaching a specified milestone. For each of the following players, I looked at their odds of making it to 400 homers, 400 stolen bases, and I roughly calculated the chances of doing both by multiplying the probabilities together. I also included Bonds’ chances of reaching 400/400 at their age for comparison.
Mookie Betts
Age: 26
HR: 138
SB: 125
400 Homers: 39.3%
400 Stolen Bases: 14.8%
400/400: 5.8%
Bonds’ Chance at His Age: 27.2%
In 2018, Betts set a career high in steals at 30, but like Trout, he didn’t make nearly as many attempts this season. Bett has only stolen 15 bases in 2019. That’s his lowest in a full season. Even if that’s just a blip, his other years haven’t put him in a great position. Though he’s coming off a 30/30 year, he’s never had a superlative year in either category.
As talented as Betts is, he’s still a longshot to join Bonds.
Christian Yelich
Age: 27
HR: 139
SB: 124
400 Homers: 58.4%
400 Stolen Bases: 19.3%
400/400: 11.2%
Bonds’ Chance at His Age: 44.5%
Yelich has never been a huge threat to steal until this year when he set a career-high at 30. If he didn’t break his kneecap, Yelich could have been the inaugural member of the 50/30 club, but his season ended at 44 homers. Yelich’s chances of reaching 400 homers are great especially with the juiced ball and Miller Park being a haven for left-handed bats.
Yelich, however, will have to continue stealing 30-40 bases a year to give himself a chance. It’s not impossible. He’s fast and he has an 83.7 percent success rate, but he probably started too late.
Mike Trout
Age: 27
HR: 285
SB: 200
400 Homers: 92.0%
400 Stolen Bases: 13.9%
400/400: 12.7%
Bonds’ Chance at His Age: 44.5%
I believe that Trout absolutely could make the 400/400 club if he wanted to. That he has led the majors in steals, and he’s currently leading the American League in homers shows that he has both the power and speed to get there. It’s a near certainty that he’ll reach 400 homers, but he apparently has little interest in stealing bases now. He only swiped 11 in 2019. He only stole 11 in 2011 but came back the next year and stole 30. If this was just another blip, Trout will be in good shape to join Bonds.
That Trout isn’t a shoo-in for the 400/400 club (not to mention the 500/500 club) just shows how Bonds’s accomplishment was. Trout may wind up as the greatest player to ever live, but he still might fail to do what Bonds did.
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Age: 21
HR: 67
SB: 53
400 Homers: 52.3%
400 Stolen Bases: 38.6%
400/400: 20.2%
Bonds’ Chance at His Age: 0%
Acuña was the original inspiration for this piece. If he manages to get to 40/40 this year, he would be the youngest player to do so. Alex Rodriguez accomplished the feat when he was 22 years old, and Acuña won’t turn 22 until December. Rodriguez ultimately came up 71 stolen bases short of the 400/400 club.
Acuña also has a year headstart on Bonds who didn’t make his debut until he was 21.
The biggest thing working for Acuña is his age, and it’s not just that he has the most time to chase it down. I suspect that a rule change is coming to allow for more stolen bases. MLB experimented with two rule changes in the Atlantic League this year.
The first was a slight tweak to the base size. The 90-foot distance between bases is a sacred number that can never be altered, but no one cares about the size of the bases even if by increasing their size it shrinks the base paths slightly. This didn’t appear to have a major effect on the stolen base rate, but anything that makes it easier to swipe a bag will benefit anyone attempting to reach the 400 milestone.
The second rule was that pitchers instead had to step off the rubber completely before attempting a pickoff move. This was implemented after the second half, and this caused the stolen base rate to explode. It made holding a runner on next to impossible, and pitchers hated it. I doubt it would make it to MLB in its present state, but I imagine MLB will continue to tweak with it until they find a balance.
Let’s say it takes five years for a rule like that to enter MLB. At that point, Acuña will only be 27 and he’ll have a few more prime stealing years to take advantage. The other players mentioned will all be into their 30’s when they will have lost a step or two.
If any active player is going to do it, I’d say it’s Trout. Acuña has the benefit of youth, but he doesn’t have the track record. If it’s not either of them, I don’t know if anyone else currently has a chance.
