Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity?
Treasury bonds are considered risk-free assets, meaning there is no risk that the investor will lose their principal. In other words, investors that hold the bond until maturity are guaranteed their principal or initial investment.
Bonds are a type of fixed-income investment. You can make money on a bond from interest payments and by selling it for more than you paid. You can lose money on a bond if you sell it for less than you paid or the issuer defaults on their payments.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Risk Considerations: The primary risks associated with corporate bonds are credit risk, interest rate risk, and market risk. In addition, some corporate bonds can be called for redemption by the issuer and have their principal repaid prior to the maturity date.
U.S. Treasury Bonds - not to be confused with savings bonds - are a type of long-term fixed-principal Treasury marketable security of 10 to 30 years. After purchase, interest payments are paid every six months until final maturity, when the principal is paid. The interest rate is determined at the time of auction.
However, CDs and Treasuries are fixed income investments and subject to similar risks as other fixed income investments. For example, if interest rates rise, the price of a CD or Treasury will fall and if you need the investment prior to maturity and have to sell it, you may lose money.
Some Bonds Can Be Called Early
It's a risk because you'll no longer have a reliable income stream from the bond. Often, this happens when interest rates fall. Although lower rates might increase your bond's value, the issuer isn't buying the bond from you—it's simply paying off the debt early.
Bonds, particularly government bonds, are often seen as safer investments during recessions. When the economy is in a downturn, investors may shift their portfolios towards bonds as a "flight to safety" to protect their capital. This shift increases the demand for bonds, raising their price but reducing their yield.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Should I pull money out of bonds?
Chances are you bought your I Bonds at the 0.0% fixed rate in 2021 or 2022, so as they are renewing your rates are coming in below 4%, compared to other interest rate accounts at roughly 5%. Keep in mind that cashing out in the first 5 years will cause you to lose your prior 3 months' interest.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
Bonds have some advantages over stocks, including relatively low volatility, high liquidity, legal protection, and various term structures. However, bonds are subject to interest rate risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and liquidity risk.
Risk #1: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Risk #2: Having to reinvest proceeds at a lower rate than what the funds were previously earning. Risk #3: When inflation increases dramatically, bonds can have a negative rate of return.
High-yield bonds face higher default rates and more volatility than investment-grade bonds, and they have more interest rate risk than stocks. Emerging market debt and convertible bonds are the main alternatives to high-yield bonds in the high-risk debt category.
Held-to-maturity (HTM) securities are purchased to be owned until maturity. For example, a company's management might invest in a bond that they plan to hold to maturity. There are different accounting treatments for HTM securities compared to securities that are liquidated in the short term.
Tax on capital gains
A capital gain is tax terminology for a profit. If you bought the bond when it was issued at its original issue price and hold it until maturity, you generally will not recognize a capital gain (or loss). As a result, you likely won't incur any capital gains tax.
While Treasurys boast higher rates than CDs, you can still score a generous annual percentage yield (APY) on a CD by shopping around. Typically, online banks offer higher interest rates than brick-and-mortar ones. Some of the best CDs have APYs that top 5%.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
- Report interest each year and pay taxes on it annually.
- Defer reporting interest until you redeem the bonds or give up ownership of the bond and it's reissued or the bond is no longer earning interest because it's matured.
Do you pay taxes on bonds?
Interest income, which is typically paid on a semiannual basis. Whether this income is taxable will depend on the issuer. Interest from corporate bonds is generally taxable at both the federal and state levels. Interest from Treasuries is generally taxable at the federal level, but not at the state level.
If you are looking for reliable income, now can be a good time to consider investment-grade bonds. If are you looking to diversify your portfolio, consider a medium-term investment-grade bond fund which could benefit if and when the Fed pivots from raising interest rates.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Investors seeking stability in a recession often turn to investment-grade bonds. These are debt securities issued by financially strong corporations or government entities. They offer regular interest payments and a smaller risk of default, relative to bonds with lower ratings.
Riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while gold and U.S. Treasuries appreciate.
