Is fixed income a good investment in 2023?
Fixed income in 2023: An improving outlook
Following the recent rough patch, bond yields and valuations were meaningfully restored in 2023. Even with the bond market rally in late 2023, valuations are still attractive amid resilient growth and falling inflation, which creates a favorable backdrop for the year ahead.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.
- Robo-advisors.
- High interest savings account.
- Index funds.
- Government bonds.
- Micro investment.
- Property.
- Cryptocurrencies.
- Forex.
Number | Category | Investments |
---|---|---|
1 | Overpriced EV producers | Tesla |
2 | Oil | Brent Crude, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP |
3 | Selected luxury goods | Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy, Kering and Dior |
4 | Shipping | ZIM Integrated Shipping |
In the consensus view, a 5% terminal rate coupled with 3% inflation by 2023 implies a 2% real Fed funds rate. Relative to the post-GFC world where the equilibrium real rate fell close to zero (Figure 6), this new implied rate would be associated with 200 basis points of positive real rates.
Interest rates tend to begin to decline three months ahead of recessions and reach a cycle low about five months into recessions. During economic downturns, fixed income has been shown to provide diversification benefits and reduce the volatility of portfolios that include risk assets such as equities.
Disadvantages. Fixed-income securities commonly have low returns and slow capital appreciation or price increases. This is the trade-off for lower risk. Their prices tend to decrease slower as well.
One of the biggest benefits of fixed-income investing is that it's considered low-risk. That's not to say there is zero risk associated with investing in fixed-income assets, but these investments are typically less volatile and provide a predictable rate of return.
Is fixed income a good investment in 2024?
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts. This environment is supportive of fixed income assets, in general, and credit assets, in particular.
- Bond funds. ...
- Municipal bonds. ...
- High-yield bonds. ...
- Money market fund. ...
- Preferred stock. ...
- Corporate bonds. ...
- Certificates of deposit. ...
- Treasury securities.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Stash it in a high-yield savings account or CD
CDs let you lock in an interest rate for a specific period, typically three to 60 months. You'll pay an early withdrawal penalty if you need your cash sooner, so CDs are best for money you won't need immediately.
- Bonds. Bonds are like IOUs. ...
- Certificates of deposit (CDs) ...
- Money market funds. ...
- Money market accounts (MMAs) ...
- High-yield savings account. ...
- Paying off existing debt.
- Options. An option allows a trader to hold a leveraged position in an asset at a lower cost than buying shares of the asset. ...
- Futures. ...
- Oil and Gas Exploratory Drilling. ...
- Limited Partnerships. ...
- Penny Stocks. ...
- Alternative Investments. ...
- High-Yield Bonds. ...
- Leveraged ETFs.
Safe assets such as U.S. Treasury securities, high-yield savings accounts, money market funds, and certain types of bonds and annuities offer a lower risk investment option for those prioritizing capital preservation and steady, albeit generally lower, returns.
SolarEdge, Plug Power, Moderna, and Pfizer are among the year's biggest losing stocks. Overall, 2023 was a great year for stocks, as the markets rallied to near-record highs in late December.
Bond prices decline when interest rates rise, when the issuer experiences a negative credit event, or as market liquidity dries up. Inflation can also erode the returns on bonds, as well as taxes or regulatory changes.
How to invest in fixed income?
Building a fixed income portfolio may include investing in bonds, bond mutual funds, and certificates of deposit (CDs). One such strategy using fixed income products is called the laddering strategy. A laddering strategy offers steady interest income through the investment in a series of short-term bonds.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Yes, you can lose money investing in bonds if the bond issuer defaults on the loan or if you sell the bond for less than you bought it for. Are bonds safe if the market crashes? Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits.
Investors seeking stability in a recession often turn to investment-grade bonds. These are debt securities issued by financially strong corporations or government entities. They offer regular interest payments and a smaller risk of default, relative to bonds with lower ratings.
In times of equity market downturns, fixed income products may offset the negative returns on stocks while lowering the overall risk of your portfolio. The proportion of fixed income and equities in your portfolio will depend on your investor profile.