The Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacersare talented, well-coached andentered the playoffs at the No. 3 seed in their respective conferences.
Their successhaspromptedthe question: Can a team without a superstar win an NBA title?
Thequestion hinges on the meaning of the word"superstar," a vague term used loosely by sports fans and journalists that has beenco-opted by sneaker companies and other commercial brands.
In a general sense, a superstar is a player who can dominate a game and carries his team on a regular basis. A more precise definition is tougher to nail down.
Some people believe that the term superstarshould bereserved forathletes who arecapable of being the best player on a championship team. Of course, that is a circular argument for our purposes.It alsoexcludes legendary competitors such as Elgin Baylor, Charles Barkley and Karl Malone.
We could use the Hall of Fame as a means for distinguishing superstars,though it would be difficult to predict which current players will be enshrined in Springfield.
That approach alsowouldnot account forplayers who performed at a Hall of Fame level the season their team won the championship, butfell short ofthe Hall. Then there are Hall of Famers like Robert Parrish and Joe Dumars who were great players on championship teams but were not considered dominant players.
Should we confineuse of the word superstar to the top five or 10 players in the game? And, if so, howshouldthose rankings be determined?We could look at Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) or All-NBA FirstTeams, though they do not tell the whole story.
Since the NBA implemented a salary cap prior to the 1984-85 season, only five teams have won a championship without a player making the All-NBA First Team: the DetroitPistons in 1989, 1990 and 2004, the1995 Houston Rockets and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks.
Hakeem Olajuwon (All-NBA Third Team) won MVP and Defensive Player of the Yearwhile leading the Rockets to the championship in 1993-94. Mavs forward Dirk Nowitzki(All-NBA Second Team)also had an MVP to his creditandhad beennamed to the All-NBA First Team in four previous seasons. It is hard to argue that Hakeem or Dirk were not superstars.
The 1988-89 and 1989-90Bad Boys Detroit Pistons had three future Hall of Famers in Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars and Dennis Rodman. Isiah is one of the greatest point guards inleague history and was selected to three All-NBA First Teams.
Thatleaves just the 2003-2004 Pistons. Ben Wallacewas the lone All-NBA selection (Second Team) from that team. Wallacewas Defensive Player of the Year four times, but was never selected to an All-NBA First Team and was not capable of carrying a team.
Now let's examine PER as a measuring stick for superstardom. Over the past 50 years,only eight championship teamsfailed to havea player rank in the top ten in PER: the 1968, 1969 and 1974 Boston Celtics, 1978 Washington Bullets, 1979 Seattle SuperSonics, and 1989, 1990 and 2004 Pistons (via basketball-reference.com).
The 1968 and 1969 Celtics were anchored by the great Bill Russell. The 1974 team had John Havlicek and Dave Cowens. The 1978 Wizardsboasted an overpowering front line of 12-time All-Star Elvin Hayes and 1969 MVP Wes Unseld,and the Pistons of '89 and '90 were led by Isiah Thomas, a 12-time All-Star.
That leaves just the 1978-79 Sonics, and once again, the 2003-04 Pistons.Based onmultiple indicators, it is fair to say that both teams lacked a superstar.
DennisJohnson, a defensive standout who won two more rings with the Celtics, is the lone Hall of Famer from that Seattle team. Gus Williams and Jack Sikma had great careers with the Sonics and other teams, but were never among the elite players in the game.
Four of the Pistons starters, Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton made multiple All-Star appearances. Billups,consideredby manythe team's best player, is a borderline Hall of Famer. Neither he nor Dennis Johnson dominated.
The key to success for the 1979 Sonics and 2004 Pistonswas a stifling defense. Seattle led the league in defensiverating (100.5 points per 100 possessions) and Detroit finished second (95.4), trailing only the 2003 and 2005 championSan Antonio Spurs.
Great defenseisessentially a pre-requisite for winning a championship whether a team has a superstar or not. In the past 40 years, only two championship teams finished outside the top ten in defensive rating, the 1994-95 Houston Rockets (12th) and the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers (21st).
However,teams without a superstarhaveless margin for erroron defense because they are at a disadvantage on the other end of the floor. While many superstars are great defenders, they typically distinguish themselves on offense.
Theyputimmense pressureon a defense by getting to the foul line, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and hitting difficult shots, especially when the shot clock is winding down. Teamlike theNuggets and Pacers thatlack of a superstarmust compensate offensively by minimizing mistakes, sharing the ball and shootinga high percentage from behind the arc.
Star-less teamsalso require perfect timing to win a championship. The '79 Sonicswon their title while the previous year's MVP (Portland's Bill Walton) was sidelined for the season and right before Magic Johnson and Larry Bird joined the league.The '04 Pistonscame out of a relatively weak Eastern Conference and were fortunate to face a dysfunctional Lakers team in the Finals.
The Nuggets and Pacers do not possess enough of the requirements mentioned above to win a championship this year (even with Indiana's Paul George playing like a superstar through the first two games of the playoffs). Denvermust survive a verycompetitive Western Conference, and both teams would have to beat an historically great Miami Heat squad.
Indiana's stingy defense surrendered the fewest points per 100 possessions (99.8), but they shot a league-worst 32.7 percent from behind the arc (via basketball-reference.com).
2012-2013Offensive and Defensive Rankings (sorted by defense)
| Rk | Team | ORtg | DRtg▴ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana Pacers* | 104.3 | 99.8 |
| 2 | Memphis Grizzlies* | 104.9 | 100.3 |
| 3 | San Antonio Spurs* | 108.3 | 101.6 |
| 4 | Oklahoma City Thunder* | 112.4 | 102.6 |
| 5 | Washington Wizards | 100.2 | 103.0 |
| 6 | Chicago Bulls* | 103.5 | 103.2 |
| 7 | Boston Celtics* | 103.1 | 103.3 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Clippers* | 110.6 | 103.6 |
| 9 | Miami Heat* | 112.3 | 103.7 |
| 10 | Atlanta Hawks* | 104.8 | 104.4 |
| 11 | Denver Nuggets* | 110.4 | 105.1 |
Denver finished 11th in both defensive rating (105.1) and three-point shootingpercentage (36.3) (via basketball-reference.com). They took a hit in both areas when Danilo Gallinari (37.3 percent three-point shooter) tore his ACL in early April.George Karl's team doesnot have the firepower or defensive prowess to overcome the lack of a superstar.
Thenew collective bargaining agreementmay create greater opportunities for teams without a superstar in the future, as ownersare hesitantto incur the luxury tax that will come with signing multiple stars. Until then,the Nuggets and Pacers of the league can continue to look to the 1979 Sonics and 2004 Pistons for inspiration.
