You would think that nine months, 38 games and more than 3,420 minutes of action would be enough to separate each of the 20 teams in the Premier League table.
But with three games of the season remaining, there is a chance that Manchester City and Liverpool could face a play-off for the title.
Similarly, north London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur may face a derby decider for the final Champions League qualifying place.
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Last week on Twitter, a Liverpool fan was derided for his suggestion that a play-off would be the fairest way to decide the title if his team only finished one point behind City in the standings. He argued that a one-point margin was so small that a play-off would be the fairer solution.
Questionable logic. But a scenario exists where a play-off may be called upon to separate the two sides. But how would it work? Have the Premier League started planning for such a scenario? And what are the odds?
So, what results are required for these to happen?
Unsurprisingly, it takes a very specific set of results. The teams must be tied on points, goal difference and goals scored.
If these are level, then the league would be decided by head-to-head record, followed by which team had scored the most away goals in those head-to-head games.
However, these stipulations, when weighed against the current table, mean that a play-off remains a possibility.
City lead the Premier League by three points. Hypothetically, if City lose their next game against Wolves (as they did in December 2019), but then both sides win all their remaining matches, the two teams would be level on points.
Liverpool currently have a goal difference of +64, four goals worse off than City’s +68. They also face a two-goal deficit in the goals scored tally.
That can easily change. For example, if City were to lose 2-1 at Molineux, and Liverpool beat Aston Villa 3-0 on Thursday night, the two sides would be level on points, goal difference, and goals scored.
Their head-to-head record does not affect the possibility of a play-off — both games between Liverpool and City have ended 2-2 this season.
A different scenario exists between Arsenal and Tottenham.
Antonio Conte’s side trail Arsenal by four points, but hold a six-goal advantage in goal difference over Arsenal. That would need to be flipped — and Tottenham would have to win the north London derby 3-1 to ensure that their head-to-head records are identical.
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What has the Premier League said about the game?
The Premier League handbook is fairly light on details. It reports: “If two clubs cannot be separated by operation of Rule C.17.1 and C.17.2, a play-off on a neutral ground, the format, timing and venue of which shall be determined by the board”.
This still leaves several questions. And we’re here to help!
What happens if the play-off ends level?
The assumption would be that the game would go to extra time, followed by one of the most pressure-filled shootouts in the history of English football.
Liverpool and City have met in two penalty shootouts during Klopp’s reign at Liverpool — in the 2016 League Cup final, and the 2019 Community Shield. City won both.
However, The Athletic understands that the Premier League board has not yet met to decide the regulations for any play-off final — which means the two teams sharing the trophy has not yet technically been ruled out.
Who would broadcast it?
An interesting question. Every broadcaster would be desperate for the chance to show the decider, a unique game with one of the biggest prizes in football at stake.
In the United Kingdom, live Premier League broadcasting rights are shared between Sky Sports, BT Sport and Amazon Prime. The BBC, meanwhile, has the highlights rights.
The Premier League divides up the 380-game season into different TV packages, which are then bid on by media companies. But a play-off would sit outside those 380 games, raising the possibility of an auction.
No Premier League matches are included in the UK’s government’s listed sporting events — which currently features events like Wimbledon, the FIFA World Cup and the Olympics — meaning that there are no stipulations that the game must be on free-to-air television.
Where and when would it take place?
The Premier League handbook states that the game would take place at a neutral ground and The Athletic understands that there would be a desire to schedule the play-offs within weeks of the end of the season.
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However, no stadium has yet been earmarked by the Premier League board.
Wembley hosts the promotion play-off finals but the stadium’s use was criticised when Liverpool and City met in April’s FA Cup semi-final, with fans finding it difficult to attend the game due to train cancellations.
Wembley is booked on May 28 and 29 — the weekend after the Premier League season’s conclusion — due to the League Two and Championship play-off finals, while Liverpool also have the small matter of the Champions League final.
The subsequent weekend (June 4-5) is a possibility, with the Capital Summertime Ball and a Harry Styles concert filling both weekends following that.
How would tickets work?
Presumably, clubs would operate ticket sales following the same model they use for cup games — but without a confirmed stadium, each team’s allocation is fluid.
And finally… what are the odds!?
Sky Bet list the odds of the title being decided via a play-off as 80/1. That means bookies consider it over five times more likely than Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2015-16.
So, stranger things have happened…
(Top photos: Laurence Griffiths and Michael Regan, Getty Images)
