Kobe vs Lebron | Sports Analytics Group at Berkeley (2024)

Who’s the better basketball player: Kobe Bryant or Lebron James? This is the basketball debate of our generation that has divided fans and pundits alike. Each player has woven their legacies into the fabric of our memories. Who can forget Kobe’s 81 point masterpiece against the Raptors in 2006, or Lebron’s chasedown block against the Warriors in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals? However, as this is a statistical piece, it’s best to disregard nostalgia and focus on the objective statistics. Ultimately, the numbers don’t lie, and these numbers will demonstrate that Lebron James is the greater basketball player.

Let’s start with some basic box score stats. Rather surprisingly, Lebron edges out Kobe in every major statistical category, averaging 27.1 vs 25.0 PPG, 7.3 vs 5.2 RPG, 7.0 vs 4.7 APG, 1.6 vs 1.4 SPG, and 0.8 vs 0.5 BPG. Lebron’s PPG advantage is magnified by the fact that he posts a True Shooting Percentage of 58.4%, as opposed to Kobe’s 55%. This is a metric that includes both 2 and 3-point shooting, as well as free throw percentage. Overall, it’s safe to conclude that Lebron both scores more points and scores them more efficiently than Kobe.

Advanced rebounding and assist metrics support the box score numbers as well. When it comes to Rebounding Percentage, a metric that evaluates what percent of available rebounds are grabbed by the player, Lebron wins yet again, totaling 10.9 vs 8.1. Lebron also has the superior Assist Percentage, a metric that estimates the percent of made field goals that the player assisted on; he leads 35% vs 24.2%. Overall, this analysis supports the common perception that Lebron is an elite passer and playmaker, while Kobe is quite good but not in the upper echelons.

Advanced overall metrics further reinforce Lebron’s dominance. Offensive Win Shares is a metric based on Dean Oliver's points produced and offensive possessions. Defensive Win Shares is based on Defensive Rating, an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. When added, we get Total Win Shares (TWS), a good estimate of a player’s contributions on both ends of the floor. Lebron has put up 143.9 career OWS and 61.5 career DWS, giving him a TWS of 205.4. Meanwhile, Kobe has contributed 122.1 career OWS and 50.7 career DWS, resulting in 172.7 TWS. Thus, Lebron has contributed more to his team's’ success on both ends of the floor than Kobe, perhaps dispelling the common myth that Kobe is a superior defender. When adjusted to TWS per 48 minutes, Lebron wins 0.239 vs 0.17. It’s interesting to note that the league average is around 0.100, highlighting Lebron’s sustained dominance as compared to Kobe’s continued excellence. Furthermore, VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, estimates the career points that player generated over a replacement player. Such a metric should favor Kobe, who has played 20 seasons to Lebron’s 14. However, Lebron surprisingly blows Kobe out of the water with this metric as well, leading 115.9 to 72.1. Lastly, the PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, is a unit of per-minute production, adjusted so that the league average is 15. It tends to favor volume shooters such as Kobe, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come out on top. However, Lebron once again wins this battle, 27.6 vs 22.9.

Advanced metrics are criticized, and sometimes rightfully slow, for being too simplistic and misleading. But when countless metrics all point to the same conclusion, it becomes very hard to ignore the signs: Lebron James is the more efficient, more impactful, and ultimately the better basketball player. A common argument is that Kobe was hampered by his Achilles injury, which dilutes his career statistics. There is definite validity to this, and Kobe, in his prime, was a devastating force on the court. But was he better than Lebron in his prime? Out of Lebron’s 4 MVP seasons, and his countless other MVP-caliber seasons, 2012-2013 stands out as his absolute best season. Kobe won his sole MVP in 2007-2008, but his 2005-2006 season was statistically better. Comparing these 2 prime seasons, Lebron scored 26.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 7.3 APG, while Kobe scored an absolutely outrageous 35.4 PPG, and put up 5.3 RPG and 4.5 APG. Kobe’s scoring numbers were absolutely mind-boggling, and it could be argued that he had to score heavily, often inefficiently, to shoulder the load of an otherwise substandard Lakers team. However, the important thing to note is that his PER of 28 throughout these prime years still fell short of Lebron’s prime PER of 31.6, even though Lebron shot much less than Kobe.

During both their overall careers and their respective prime seasons, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant have produced elite bodies of work. No disrespect to Kobe, but his numbers pale in comparison to Lebron James. With Lebron’s continues dominance in the league, it may be time to stop with the Kobe comparisons and focus on the Jordon comparisons.