GSAA is a hockey goaltending statistic that stands for “Goals Saved Above Average”. GSAA is a relatively new statistic, but a valuable one used to measure a goalies play as compared to the rest of the goalies in their league. GSAA is hockey’s version of baseball’s “WAR” statistic.
In the past decade, statistics have taken a much deeper dive than ever before. Not just in hockey, but with sports like Baseball and the “WAR” statistic. GSAA is becoming increasingly popular when used by NHL GM’s in evaluating a goalies trade potential and contract size.
Statistically speaking, teams with a goalie who finishes in the top 12 league wide in terms of GSAA, are more likely to win the Stanley Cup. In a sample of 7 NHL seasons from 2014-2015 to 2020-2021, teams with a goalie in the top 12 GSAA statistic won the cup 6 out of 7 times.
How is GSAA calculated?
Goals Saved Above Average is calculated by the league’s average save percentage with the number of shots a goalie has had. The resulting number is the average goals a goalie in whatever league you’re evaluating would’ve surrendered if they took the same number of shots as the goalie you’re evaluating.
Then, this number can be evaluated against the number of goals given up by the goalie in question, finally resulting in a plus / minus number, GSAA.
What’s a good GSAA for goalies?
A positive GSAA (higher the number the better)is the number of goals the goalie has saved compared to a league average goalie. Negative GSAA numbers indicate that the goalie is performing worse than a league average goalie would.
Simple, right? Below, we’re going to list some fun facts, for the sake of debate, of goalies GSAA statistics and how their teams fared in the playoffs from that season.
Is GSAA really a good way to measure a goalies value?
This is the million dollar question. I have a friend who now works for the Toronto Blue Jays in Major League Baseball. Without naming him or his speciality, he built his career and made a name for himself in the MLB by tracking one simple statistic that had nothing to do with wins and losses. Personally, I think that some stats turn into slang and do go too far. Is GSAA one of them? Immediately, I would say not.
Making the case for GSAA is the fact that the statistic does factor in a league average save percentage. As a result, a good GSAA often follows a trendline of the leading save percentage.
That said, we cannot argue that GSAA is the most important statistic in determining a goalies value. Maybe not so much the argument against GSAA alone, but it’s correlation with my preferred statistic, the Saves Percentage. If you look at the 2018 / 2019 NHL season when the cinderella story St. Louis Blues and freshman netminder Jordan Binnington took the Stanley Cup in brilliant fashion, Binnington barely finished in the top 15 as far as GSAA is concerned. Ben Bishop led the league, at +32 GSAA and the Dallas Stars ultimately fell to the future Cup Champions in St. Louis. Bishop was in the middle of an incredible season in which many argued that he should’ve won the Vezina Trophy.
Does a low GSAA indicate under performance?
I would argue that an underwhelming GSAA does not indicate under performance. Carter Hart, the current staple and major reason why the Philadelphia Flyers entered the Cup Playoffs as a favorite, ended the season with a 4.46 GSAA. Back to Jordan Binnington, he started 50 games for the St. Louis Blues and won 30 of them, but ended with a 3.30 GSAA. Carey Price had a horrible season as far as GSAA is concerned, but if I’m current Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin, I’m not out shopping one of the perennial best goalies in the NHL.
It’s interesting to point out that of the “Big 3” as I would call them, Goals Against Average, Saves Percentage, and Goals Saved Above Average, 2020 Vezina Winner Connor Hellebuyck finished with these stats.
- 7th in SVS% amongst goalies who played more than 30 games (2nd behind Tuuka Rask in goalies who played more than 40 games)
- 13th in GAA amongst goalies who played more than 30 games (6th in goalies who played more than 40 games)
- 2nd in GSAA behind just Tuuka Rask
Helleybuyck finished the 2019 2020 season with 31 wins, trailing only Stanley Cup Champ Andrei Vasilevskiy, which was a key factor in the decision to award him the Vezina.
With a few elite goalies in the prime of their career, it’s interesting to note that we have a completely new top 5 GSAA leaders this season.
The top GSAA leaders from 2020-2021
- Semyon Varlamov
- Andrei Vasilevsky
- Juuse Saros
- Marc-Andre Fleury
- Alex Nedelkjovic
The top 5 worst GSAA stats from 2020 – 2021
- Carter Hart
- Brian Elliot
- Braden Holtby
- Joonas Korpisalo
- Martin Jones
Do GSAA leaders wear the same brand of goalie pads?
Ok this one we had to. Our name is literally Goalie Coaches. We’re allowed to point out which gear is worn by GSAA leaders. Over the past 3 years and 15 total leaders, Vaughn has 5 goalies finishing in the top 5 wearing their gear. Bauer has had 3, CCM has also had 5, and Brian’s just 2.
2020 – 2021 GSAA leaders and their choice of pads.
- Semyon Varlamov, True
- Andrei Vasilevsky, Bauer
- Juuse Saros, CCM
- Marc-Andre Fleury, True
- Alex Nedelkjovic, Vaughn
2019 – 2020 GSAA Leaders and their choice of pads.
- Tuuka Rask, Vaughn
- Connor Hellebuyck, CCM
- Anton Khudobin, Vaughn
- Darcy Kuemper, Vaughn
- Ben Bishop, Bauer
2018 – 2019 GSAA Leaders and their choice of pads.
- Ben Bishop, Bauer
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, Bauer
- Robin Lehner, Brian’s
- Darcy Kuemper, Vaughn
- Thomas Greiss, Vaughn
2017 – 2018 GSAA Leaders and their choice of pads.
- Pekka Rinne, CCM
- John Gibson, CCM
- Antti Raanta, Brian’s
- Connor Hellebuyck, CCM
- Marc-Andre Fleury, CCM
GSAA Leaders from 2020 – 2021
GSAA Leaders 2019 – 2020
Ok so to be fair, the 2019 2020 NHL season was cut in half due to the coronavirus pandemic. With that being said, we do have some good reference points to go off of for that season.
The top 5 worst GSAA stats from 2019 – 2020
- Jimmy Howard
- Braden Holtby
- Devan Dubnyk
- Martin Jones
- Sergei Bobrovsky
Dubnyk, who won at least 30 games from 2015-16 to 2018-19, was traded to the San Jose Sharks shortly after the conclusion of the pandemic shortened season. Personally, I felt that Dubnyk is not best judged by his GSAA, as he consistently led the league in other key statistics. In fact, from 2014, Dubnyk was 2nd in wins throughout the entire NHL.
The top 5 best GSAA stats from 2019 – 2020
- Tuuka Rask (22.51 GSAA)
- Connor Hellebuyck (22.40 GSAA)
- Anton Khudobin (17.75 GSAA)
- Darcy Kuemper (16.65 GSAA)
- Ben Bishop (13.28 GSAA)
One thing that’s interesting to note from this, both Khudobin and Kuemper spent time with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild have had “issues” between the pipes, which led to a change in shipping Dubnyk to San Jose at the conclusion of the 2019 – 2020 season.
GSAA Leaders from the 2018 / 2019 Season
NHL GSAA Leaders from the 2017 / 2018 Season
Does GSAA have a meaningful impact on a teams finish in the playoffs? Of course, there are a number of different and impactful statistics that influence a teams finish (and no, it’s not just whether or not the teams starting goalie has great looking goalie pads.. despite what we might think), but we’ll take a deeper dive into how Goals Saved Above Average correlates to a teams post season finish.
2017 / 18 Playoff teams
The conference final teams in no order were the Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals and the Winnipeg Jets. Western Conference goalies ranked in the top 5, and were the majority starters for their respective teams. On the Eastern Conference side, Holtby ranked near the bottom of the NHL in GSAA, yet they made it to the Conference finals.
Also, interestingly enough, Holtby had the only SV% ranked under a .920 of these 4. Holtby’s SV% was in the bottom 4 of any goalie in the playoffs, tied with Corey Schneider.
Nashville Predators – Pekka Rinne | SV% .927 | GSAA 27.49 (1st in the NHL)
Anaheim Ducks – John Gibson | SV% .926 | 25.3 GSAA (2nd in the NHL)
Winnipeg Jets – Connor Hellebuyck| SV% .924 | GSAA 23.75 (4th in the NHL)
Vegas Golden Knights – Marc-Andre Fleury .927 SV% | GSAA 20.77 (5th in the NHL)
Columbus Blue Jackets –Sergei Bobrovsky | SV% .921 | GSAA 16.92 (7th in the NHL)
Los Angeles Kings – Jonathan Quick | SV% .921 | GSAA 16.86 (8th in the NHL)
Toronto Maple Leafs – Frederik Andersen | SV% .918 | GSAA 12.06 (12th in the NHL)
Minnesota Wild – Devan Dubnyk .918 SV% | GSAA 10.26 (17th in the NHL)
Boston Bruins – Tuukka Rask | SV% .917 | GSAA 7.79 (19th in the NHL)
Tampa Bay Lightning –Andrei Vasilevskiy | SV% .920 | GSAA 15.12 (9th in the NHL)
San Jose Sharks – Martin Jones | .915 SV% | 4.12 GSAA (24th in the NHL)
Colorado Avalanche – Jonathan Bernier | .913 SV% | .84 GSAA (30th in the NHL)
New Jersey Devils – Keith Kincaid .913 SV% | .55 GSAA (31st in the NHL) / Corey Schneider| SV% .907 | GSAA -6.22 (47th in the NHL). One thing worth noting, Kincaid and Schneider split time last season, both playing roughly 40 games.
Washington Capitals– Braden Holtby | SV% .907 | GSAA -.836 (54th in the NHL)
Everybody loves to debate the top goalies in the league.
Take Devan Dubnyk, for example. When he originally came to the Minnesota Wild by way of the Arizona Coyotes and a third round pick, he was near the bottom of the league, just trying to find a way to stick around.
Today, despite the playoff woes of the Wild in recent years, he’s one of the top goalies in the NHL. During the 2017/18 season he ranked #17 in GSAA.
Yet, since 2013/2014 he has the 2nd best save percentage in the NHL, only behind the Ducks John Gibson.
So, is GSAA the best way to rank goalies? Maybe. Maybe not. At the end of the day, goalies will continue to be judged based on their save percentage and goals against average.
GSAA is a helpful stat, however, in our opinion, it’s a “fans stat”. It’s interesting to debate, but doesn’t necessarily rank the best goalies year over year.
