What is expected goal differential? The advanced stat sweeping through the hockey world (2024)

FAQs

What is expected goal differential in hockey? ›

What is expected goal differential in the NHL? While expected goal differential might sound difficult to understand, it isn't as complex as you think. Expected goal differential is calculated by subtracting a team's expected goals against from their expected goals for.

In the broadest sense, expected goals (xG) is a measure that seeks to address the concern that not all shots are created equal. xG considers a variety of factors and then mathematically assigns a value to each shot attempt that represents the probability of that shot becoming a goal.

Largest goal differential: Detroit Red Wings 15, New York Rangers 0 on January 23, 1944. Most games going past regulation in a single day: 8 on February 22, 2007 and November 27, 2015. Most shootout goals in a single game: 11, Florida Panthers 6, Washington Capitals 5, on December 16, 2014.

Typically, I judge xGF/60 as the following, bad<2.00-2.5<good, and the opposite is true for xGA/60. Anything between the 2.00 to 2.5 range is standard to pretty good.

Expected goals for (xGf) - The number of goals a team is expected to have scored based on the quality and quantity of shots taken. Expected goals against (xGa) - The number of goals a team is expected to have conceded based on the quality and quantity of shots they have taken.

Expected Goals (xG) to predict future matches

Teams are fairly consistent in the xG created and conceded while shots can vary significantly game to game. Due to being more consistent, xG are a more useful tool in predicting future results.

Hey Peter, a 'big chance' has an xG value greater than 0.3. Opta define one as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score (one on one scenario or from v. close range) when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low/moderate pressure on the shooter.

Simply put, the term “advanced statistics” refers to a number of metrics that go beyond traditional boxscore statistics, such as goals, assists, shots, hits, penalty minutes, and plus-minus differential. They offer a more detailed form of hockey analysis and reduce the amount of human error involved.

Rule 56 of the NHL Rule Book states: If a player penalized as an instigator of an altercation is wearing a face shield, he shall be assessed an additional Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty.

How is xG expected goals calculated? ›

An xG model uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate the likelihood of a goal on a scale between 0 and 1. For example, a shot with an xG value of 0.2 is one that we would generally expect to be converted twice in every 10 attempts.

G. Goals. A goal is awarded to the last player on the scoring team to touch the puck prior to the puck entering the net. Note: Goals scored during a shootout do not count towards a player's goal total.

Zdeno Chara

Big Zed is a five-time winner of the NHL's hardest shot competition, and his blast of 108.8 mph, accomplished in 2012 at the All-Star Skills Competition in Ottawa, remains the all-time record.

Mario Lemieux is the only player in history to achieve a five-goal game by scoring in five different ways – on December 31, 1988, he scored an even-strength goal, a power-play goal, a short-handed goal, a penalty shot goal and an empty net goal against the New Jersey Devils.

The glaring issue with xG it is that it assumes every player is born equally. The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league.

According to blogger Kent Wilson, most players will have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) between 40 and 60. A player or team ranked above 55% is often considered "elite".

Expected goals against (xGa)

xGa or expected goals against is the opposite of xGf. It is the number of goals a team is expected to have conceded from team b during a match based on xG data.

SVGA is 800 x 600, XGA is 1024 x 768, HD 720 is 1280 x 720, and HD is 1920 x 1080. So if you bought an XGA projector your image would be 1024 pixels wide and 768 pixels high. More pixels will give you better image detail especially when you enlarge the image as you would with a projector.

If you're looking for a projector with more resolution than XGA but don't want to break the bank, a WXGA projector may be the best option for you. This resolution, which stands for Wide XGA, offers 1280 x 800 pixels and a “movie theatre” aspect ratio of 16:9.

XGA has an aspect ratio of 4:3, this resolution offers an effective resolution of 1024 by 768 pixels, which equals to 786,000 pixels being rendered at any given time which results in an even sharper image and great detail.

What is expected goal difference? ›

Put simply, Expected Goals (xG) is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. An xG model uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate the likelihood of a goal on a scale between 0 and 1.

How Is Goal Differential Calculated? Goal difference is calculated by subtracting the number of goals conceded across all league matches from the number of goals scored in league play. A goal scored by one team not only adds a point to their goal difference but also subtracts a point from their opponent's GD.

GF - Count of Goals for that player's team while that player is on the ice. GA - Count of Goals against that player's team while that player is on the ice.

It's essentially an average shots for per game minus the average shots against per game.

Expected goals predicts the correct home team result 66% of the time and away results 58% of the time. This is slightly better than shots on target on the away results and slightly worse on the home results.

In hockey, expected goals (xG) are an advanced counting metric that uses past information of previous shots taken and gives context to derive shot quality of new shots.

A shot measuring 0.99 xG would be scored 99 times in 100 by the average player; it is an almost certain goal that will only extremely rarely be missed. Although the expected goals metric is used to calculate values for individual shots, it is more useful when used over longer periods, such as an entire season.

As you can see from the example, a positive goal difference is always better than a negative goal difference, as it means your team has scored more goals than it has conceded. Teams with negative goal differences tend to struggle towards the bottom of the league standings as a result.

A Score Differential measures the performance of a round in relation to the relative difficulty of the course that was played, measured by the Course Rating™ and Slope Rating® .

Handicap differential = (Adjusted Gross Score-rating of the course) X 113 / Course slope ratings. The course rating is simply the scores of a new golfer on a normal course under a normal playing condition. Slope rating is the rating of 113 for a course based on the standard difficulty.

What does F mean in hockey? ›

In ice hockey, a forward is a player, and a position on the ice, whose primary responsibility is to score and assist goals. Generally, the forwards try to stay in three different lanes of the ice going from goal to goal. It is not mandatory, however, to stay in a lane.

OTL – Overtime losses – Games the team has lost in overtime. SOL – Shootout losses – Games the team has lost in a shootout (Note: Many leagues, most notably the NHL, do not separate overtime losses and shootout losses, including all losses past regulation in the overtime losses statistic.)