In the win over Ottawa, one Kraken forward line and defensive pair in particular stood out for their ability to build an offensive advantage. We look at how to measure it and find even deeper meaning
By Alison Lukan
@AlisonL nhl.com/kraken
One of the most foundational concepts in hockey analytics has to do with shot attempts (all missed and blocked shots plus shots on goal) and the proven likelihood that whichever team gets the most is more likely to win the game. Sometimes called "possession" or "shot share," this principle is what people are referring to when you hear "tilt the ice."
Saying a player - or a team - tilts the ice means that they are getting more shots than their opponent either by generating more and/or by preventing the other team from creating offense of their own. The greater the disparity between what each side creates, the greater the advantage for the side with the larger shot volume.
We see this often presented as a percentage: a player / line / team had X-percent of all shot attempts. But numbers can sometimes feel too sterile or don't resonate with what the actual impact is on the ice. But what if we can see what this actually looks like?
Let's dig in.
Going by the numbers,
bundled by Geico
, we know that Monday versus Ottawa there was one Kraken line that dominated play. The Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann, Karson Kuhlman combination tilted the ice more than any other in the game. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, in 8:58 of 5-on-5 play, when this trio was on the ice, the Kraken had 12 shot attempts. Ottawa had five. That's a 70.59 percent advantage for Seattle, which is pretty significant. Even more notable, this performance came when most of those minutes (6:37 - 6:57) were against the Senators' top line of Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Connor Brown.
Yes, those numbers feel impressive. But what does that mean actually happened? Let's start with McCann. Not only was he part of this impactful line, but he had a goal and in all situations he led all skaters with eight shot attempts.
HockeyViz.com's Player Detail charts (by game) let us see what went down on the ice.
Let's focus on the two rink visuals within the bigger Viz below. The one on the left side below shows even-strength play, the rink on the right shows special-teams play. The top half of each rink shows shots the Kraken had, the bottom half are shots by the opponent (in this case, Ottawa). (There is teammate and opponent playing time detailed under that).
When you can see the disparity of shots between the two teams with McCann on the ice (both at even strength and on special teams) it certainly makes you take note, and the numbers start to mean a little bit more. (Kuhlman and Gourde's charts are obviously similar and can be found
HERE
under 'SEA Forward Detail').
And if you're more results oriented, these charts can help bring numbers to life there, too. Let's look at the night Vince Dunn had against the Senators: five shot attempts (the most of any Kraken defender), and he had an assist on all but one of Seattle's four goals.
Here's Dunn's game in visual form. Each red dot designates a goal.
We see that in addition to being part of the most effective defensive pairing for the Kraken (with Adam Larsson), Dunn was present for a lot of goal scoring and most of those were for his team. A good game indeed.
At the end of the day, any measure boils down to numbers. But visualizations can help us drive home the true impact of what those numbers tells us. And, now we can see, when it came to gaining an advantage and "tilting the ice," quite a few Kraken players had a very impactful night.
As an avid hockey analytics enthusiast with an in-depth understanding of the game, I bring a wealth of knowledge to the discussion of the article you provided. My expertise is grounded in a thorough comprehension of key concepts, statistical analysis, and the strategic nuances of hockey gameplay. Now, let's delve into the concepts mentioned in the article:
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Shot Attempts and Possession:
- The article discusses the foundational concept of shot attempts, which include missed shots, blocked shots, and shots on goal. The proven likelihood is that the team with more shot attempts is more likely to win, a principle often referred to as "possession" or "shot share." Possessing the puck and generating offensive opportunities contribute to a team's success.
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Tilting the Ice:
- The expression "tilt the ice" is used to describe a team or player's ability to gain an advantage by either generating more shots or preventing the opponent from creating offensive opportunities. The greater the disparity in shot attempts, the more significant the advantage for the team with a larger shot volume.
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Player Performance Analysis:
- The article highlights the performance of the Kraken forward line consisting of Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann, and Karson Kuhlman against Ottawa. The line had a substantial 70.59 percent advantage in shot attempts during their time on the ice.
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Individual Player Contributions:
- Individual player contributions are emphasized, particularly focusing on Jared McCann, who not only tilted the ice with his line but also led all skaters with eight shot attempts. The article underlines his impact on the game, both in generating offense and contributing to goal-scoring situations.
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Visualizations for Impact Analysis:
- The article introduces visualizations from HockeyViz.com's Player Detail charts to illustrate the impact of players on the ice. These visual representations help to better understand the disparity of shots between teams and the effectiveness of players, offering a more tangible perspective on their performance.
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Results-Oriented Analysis:
- The article concludes by emphasizing that while measurements in hockey ultimately boil down to numbers, visualizations can effectively convey the true impact of those numbers. It highlights the success of various Kraken players in gaining an advantage and "tilting the ice" during the game against Ottawa.
In conclusion, the article provides a comprehensive analysis of key hockey analytics concepts, player performances, and the use of visualizations to understand the impact of statistics on the game. This deep dive into the data adds a layer of insight and appreciation for the strategic and statistical elements that contribute to a team's success on the ice.
